000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180926 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N100W. The ITCZ extends from 08N100W to 06N117W to 02N126W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 95W and 123W, and from 01N to 07N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters of Mexico. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are noted to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate S winds are over the Gulf of California, except for the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas, where late evening ASCAT wind data showed fresh to strong SW winds. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, except for moderate NW winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are mainly 6-8 ft over the open waters off Mexico in primarily S-SW swell, highest just SE of Cabo San Lucas, where altimeter data from 18/0330 UTC showed seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less in the northern and central Gulf of California, except 3-6 ft in the far southern Gulf of California. Seasonally hazy conditions persist from near the coast to offshore of Guerrero and Michoacan with reductions to visibility around 5 to 6 nm per recent coastal observations. For the forecast, winds in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas will relax some during the day, but may pulse to fresh to locally strong again tonight and again Sun night. Winds near Cabo Corrientes will pulse to fresh to strong Fri night through Sat night due to localized tight pressure gradients. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night/early morning hours starting late Fri night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. SW swell with seas of 6-8 ft offshore Mexico will continue to subside through this morning. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas could exceed 8 ft over the weekend. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S winds are occurring south of the equator between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate NE to E winds are in the Papagayo region east of 87W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail in S-SW swell, except 6 to 7 ft south of the equator between southern Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, where a new set of long period S to SW swell has entered the area. Seasonally hazy conditions persist from near the coast to offshore of Nicaragua northwestward, with reductions to visibility around 5 to 6 nm possible. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Papagayo region during the late night and early morning hours starting late tonight through Sat night. Southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate to locally fresh late today through early Fri. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters. The new set of long period S-SW swell over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will spread northward across the area through Fri morning. Seas will build to 8-10 ft across the area from 02N southward through Fri night before decaying slightly thereafter. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Nicaragua offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 25N132W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate trades N of the ITCZ to 15N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ between 100W and 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range from 6 to 9 ft across the discussion waters, with most of the area experiencing southerly swell, which has been decaying. A NW swell is also affecting northwestern and western portions of the area. A new long period S swell has entered the area south of 02N and east of 120W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the NW waters will decay this morning. Meanwhile, the southerly swell will continue to subside across most of the remainder of the waters this morning. The new set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 ft will continue to spread northward today, mainly east of 120W. This swell will spread seas of 8 ft or greater as far north as 07N by early Fri before seas gradually subside Fri night into the weekend. $$ Hagen