000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172001
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N96W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N96W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm S and 120 nm N
of the ITCZ W of 98W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the
offshore waters of Mexico. Gentle to locally moderate winds are
noted west of the Baja California peninsula as well as over the
Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are mainly 6-8 ft over the open waters off Mexico
in primarily S-SW swell across the waters. Seas are 3 ft or less
in the Gulf of California. Seasonally hazy conditions persist 
from near the coast to offshore with reductions to visibility 
around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico per recent coastal observations.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night/early morning hours 
starting late Fri night. Winds may pulse to fresh to locally 
strong in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo San Lucas
tonight and again Sun night, and near Cabo Corrientes Fri night 
and Sat night due to localized tight pressure gradients. Mainly 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. SW
swell with seas of 7-8 ft offshore Mexico will gradually subside
through tonight. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail for the remainder 
of the forecast period. Reduced visibilities in haze will be 
possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are from 250 nm offshore Ecuador to
the Galapagos Islands, and in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds prevail. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail in S-SW 
swell. Seasonally hazy conditions persist from near the coast to 
offshore of Costa Rica northward, with possible reductions to 
visibility around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
in the Papagayo region during the late night hours starting late 
Thu night through Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail across the waters. A new set of S-SW swell will 
arrive across the Ecuador to Galapagos Islands waters late 
tonight, building seas to 7-9 ft through Fri night before 
decaying slightly thereafter. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due
to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 28N130W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure 
within the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades N of the 
ITCZ to 15N and west of 128W. Light to gentle winds are in the 
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range mainly in southerly swell
across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, a set of NW swell over the NW waters will 
decaying by early Thu. Meanwhile, the southerly swell will
subside across the remainder of the waters this afternoon and 
beyond. A new set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 ft will 
cross 03.4S late tonight.

$$
AL