000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N76W to 07N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N95W to 09N109W to 05N125W to 02N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N 
between 85W and 91W, from 04N to 10N between 93W and 98W, from 
03N to 07N between 110W and 120W, and from 02N to 07N between 
123W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the
offshore waters of Mexico with mainly gentle to moderate winds.
Winds are locally fresh within 60 nm of Baja California from near
Punta Eugenia northward, and near Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6-8 ft
in SW swell, except 4-6 ft from Cabo Corrientes to the entrance
to the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of California, gentle SE
winds are in the northern Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh
SE-S winds in the central and southern Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or
less north of the entrance. Seasonally hazy conditions persist
from near the coast to offshore with possible reductions to
visibility around 5 nm near S and SW Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this evening through Wed morning.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
during the late night/early morning hours starting Fri night.
Winds may pulse to fresh to strong in the southern Gulf of
California and near Cabo San Lucas Wed night and again Sun night,
and near Cabo Corrientes Sat night due to localized tight 
pressure gradients. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere and otherwise. SW swell with seas of 7-8 ft offshore
Mexico will subside Wed night. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail for
the remainder of the forecast period. Reduced visibilities in 
haze will be possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due
to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Convection over the offshore waters from Costa Rica southward has
diminished significantly during the past several hours, however
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain. Gentle to
moderate winds dominate the waters, along with seas of 5-8 ft,
except 4-7 ft offshore Colombia. Seasonally hazy conditions
persist from near the coast to offshore of Costa Rica northward,
with possible reductions to visibility around 5 nm near S and SW
Mexico.

For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong in
the Papagayo region during the late night/early morning hours
starting Thu night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the waters, locally fresh from Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands S of the Equator late Thu night/Fri morning.
Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW swell will subside through Wed night. A
new set of S-SW swell will arrive across the Ecuador to Galapagos
Islands waters Thu, building seas to 7-9 ft there through Fri
night, then decaying slightly thereafter. Reduced visibilities 
in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural 
fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening stationary front extends from 30N134.5W to 23N139W.
Scattered showers are possible near the front along with moderate
S-SW winds. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered ahead of the
front near 28N130W. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of 20N
under the high and associated ridging. Moderate trades dominate S
of 20N and W of 90W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas
of 6-9 ft in mainly southerly swell prevails across the open
waters.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate 
tonight. Another weak front or trough will move into the NW 
waters overnight through Wed night, with an associated set of NW
swell with seas of 7-10 ft moving just SE of 30N140W by Wed
afternoon, decaying by early Thu. Meanwhile, the southerly swell
will decay across the remainder of the waters Wed afternoon and
beyond. A new set of southerly swell with seas of 7-10 ft will
cross 03.4S late Wed night/early Thu with such sea heights
forecast to remain from around 01N southward.

$$
Lewitsky