000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162053
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N94W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 12N and E of 91W, and from 00N to 07N between 
108W and 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due 
to a locally tight pressure gradient, with seas to 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, high pressure ridging extends from NW to SE across the
offshore waters of Mexico with gentle to moderate winds. Seas of
5-7 ft in S-SW dominate the open waters, mixed with NW swell 
offshore Baja California where seas are slightly higher at 6-8 
ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle SE-S winds and 
seas of 1-3 ft or less prevail, except 3-5 ft near the entrance. 
Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters from Las 
Tres Marias to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing 
agricultural fires with possible reduction in visibility to 5 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will persist through the evening hours along with 
8 ft seas. Winds and seas will increase again by Fri night/Sat 
morning and Sat night/Sun morning. Winds from near Cabo San Lucas
into the southern Gulf of California may increase to fresh to 
strong on Wed night as a weak area of low pressure develops. 
Fresh to strong winds may pulse near Cabo San Lucas again Sat 
night and Sun night, and also near Cabo Corrientes Sat night. 
Elsewhere, little change in winds is forecast through the 
weekend. Large cross equatorial southerly swell will arrive 
offshore Mexico this morning through Wed, building seas to around
8 ft, with another yet weaker pulse of S swell arriving on Fri. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the 
Pacific coast of Colombia extending westward to across portions 
of Panama, Costa Rica and offshore to 87W. Model guidance 
continues to indicate the potential for higher winds and seas 
with this convection. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. 
Seas are 6-8 ft in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Seas are 5-6 ft elsewhere, except 3-6 ft offshore 
Colombia. Hazy skies persist from the Papagayo region to 
Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural 
fires, with visibilities down to around 5 nm along the coast and 
also likely offshore from the Gulf of Fonseca to El Salvador.

For the forecast, strong thunderstorm activity is expected to 
persist across the waters from Costa Rica and Panama southward 
through tonight with the potential for higher winds and seas. NE
to E gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the Papagayo
region during the overnight and early morning hours beginning 
Thu night. Building S-SW swell from offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands will reach the nearshore waters of Central 
America today with peak seas of 7-8 ft. New SW swell should reach
the Galapagos waters early Thu, with seas building to 7-9 ft yet
again across the offshore waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands Thu night through Sat. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
expected from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due
to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from 30N134W to 23N140W. Moderate to 
fresh S-SW winds ahead of the front are N of 26N within about 60-
120 nm of the front. NW swell of 7-8 ft covers the waters N of 
16N. Weak ridging prevails ahead of the front and N of the ITCZ 
with a parent 1021 mb high near 30N129W. Moderate to fresh 
trades are from 04N to 16N and W of 110W due to the pressure 
gradient between the ITCZ and the ridging. Seas are 8-9 ft in 
this area. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of 
the open waters. A set of S-SW swell with seas of 6-8 ft 
continues to spread across the remainder of the open waters. 

For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate tonight. 
Another weak front or trough will move into the NW waters by mid-
week, with another pulse of NW swell building seas to 8-10 ft 
Wed before decaying. Trades of moderate to fresh in the W-central
waters will diminish by this evening, then increase back to 
moderate to fresh Fri night into the upcoming weekend, but 
otherwise, little change in winds is forecast through the next 
several days. Meanwhile, the S-SW swell will continue to 
propagate across the open waters with combined seas of 6-8 ft. 
The seas will slowly decline tonight through Wed. A new set of 
S-SW swell of 7-10 ft will reach the Equator Wed night, extending
to near 10N Fri.

$$
ERA