057 AXPZ20 KNHC 142147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2020 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 07.5N84W to 06N95W to 08N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N102W to 09.5N108W to 04.5N127W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 78W and 95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 07N between 96W and 110W, and from 01.5N to 06.5N between 113W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure W of the area along 133W extends a weak ridge ESE across the offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes. This pressure pattern is producing mainly gentle NW to N winds across the Baja California waters. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the open waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE-S winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft or less prevail, except 4-5 ft near the entrance. Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters from Las Tres Marias to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires. For the forecast, little change in the pressure pattern is forecast through Thu, and will maintain gentle to moderate winds area-wide. The exception will be a surge of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night to early morning hours tonight and again Mon night into Tue. Large cross equatoriaL southerly swell will arrive offshore Mexico Tue through Wed building seas to around 8 ft, and yet another pulse of S swell arriving on Fri. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend to near 87W this afternoon. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where sea are 6-7 ft in S-SW swell. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere, except to 7 ft downwind of the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the offshore waters under a light pressure pattern, except moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, while numerous strong thunderstorms persist from the equator to 07N, between the Galapagos Islands and the coasts of western Colombia and Ecuador. Winds and seas are likely higher due to these thunderstorms. Hazy skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires, with visibilities likely 5-6 nm offshore from the Gulf of Fonseca to El Salvador. For the forecast, strong thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across the waters S of Panama and Costa Rica through Tue. NE to E gap winds will pulse to fresh across the Papagayo region tonight, and then to strong Thu night and Fri night. Elsewhere, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist through Thu, with moderate southerly winds from Ecuador to the Galapagos. Building SW swell will reach the Galapagos Islands tonight with peak seas on Mon of 8-9 ft, then reach the nearshore waters of Central America early on Tue with peak seas of 7 ft there. New SW swell should reach the Galapagos waters early Thu, with seas building to 8-9 ft across the offshore waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Thu night. Reduced visibilities in haze are expected from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1018 mb high pressure centered near 30N133W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting only gentle to moderate NE to E tradewinds from around 05N to 17N and west of around 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft across this area per recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters, except light to gentle near the monsoon trough from 03N to 13N and E of 120W. A slow moving cold front is approaching the NW corner of the discussion area near 30N140W, with a narrow band of southerly winds near 20 kt within 60 nm E of the front and N of 28N. Seas are 9-10 ft in NW swell across this area and 7-9 elsewhere W of 125W and N of 20N. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell south of the ITCZ and west of 100W. For the forecast, the cold front W of 30N140W will enter the NW waters this evening with a brief band of fresh to strong S-SW winds occurring ahead of it. NW swell with this system will continue to push SE, with seas of 8-10 ft N of 22N and W of 132W through Mon. The front will become stationary and dissipate through Tue, while the swell propagates SE of this area. A trailing front or trough will move into the NW waters by mid- week, with another pulse of NW swell raising seas to 8-10 ft Wed night. Winds will increase slightly across the trad wind zone MOn night and Tue, but otherwise, little change in winds is forecast through the next several days. S-SW swell of 8-10 ft will breach the Equator between 90W and 130W tonight through the early part of the week before decaying, with similar new S swell and similar areal coverage by Thu. Elsewhere, seas of 6-9 ft in mixed swells will prevail, except occasionally 9-10 ft across the trade wind zone. $$ Stripling