071 AXPZ20 KNHC 141609 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06N88W to 05N117W. The ITCZ extends from 05N117W to 04N132W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 01N to 05.5N between 79W and 89W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11.5N to 14.5N between 90W and 95W, from 02N to 07N between 90W and 111W, and from 00N to 06.5N between 114W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure W of the area along 133W extends a weak ESE across the offshore waters that is producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the Baja California waters, except locally fresh within 60 nm of Baja California from Cabo San Lucas NW to Punta Eugenia. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the open waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE-S winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail, except 3-5 ft near the entrance. Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters from Las Tres Marias to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires. For the forecast, little change in the pressure pattern is forecast with mainly continued gentle to moderate winds area- wide through Thu. The exception will be a surge of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night to early morning hours this morning, then again Sun night into Mon and Mon night into Tue. Large cross equatoriaL southerly swell will arrive offshore Mexico Tue through Wed building seas to around 8 ft. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend to near 89W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where sea are 6-7 ft in S-SW swell. Seas are 4-5 ft elsewhere, except to 7 ft downwind of the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the offshore waters under a light pressure pattern, except moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, while numerous strong thunderstorms persist from 01N to 06N, between the Galapagos Islands and the coasts of western Colombia and Ecuador. Winds and seas are likely higher due to these thunderstorms. Hazy skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires, with visibilities likely near 5 nm offshore from the Gulf of Fonseca to Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NE-E winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through this morning, and again Thu night. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds will then prevail there tonight through Mon morning, and again Wed night into Thu morning. Elsewhere, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist through Thu. Active weather is expected to continues offshore of Ecuador and western Colombia into tonight, as well as offshore of Guatemala. Building SW swell will reach the Galapagos Islands tonight with peak seas of 7-9 ft, then reach the nearshore waters of Central America early on Tue with peak seas of 6-7 ft there. New SW swell should reach the Galapagos waters again early Thu, with seas possibly building to 7-9 ft across the offshore waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Reduced visibilities in haze are expected from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1018 mb high pressure centered near 30N133W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E tradewinds from around 05N to 17N and west of around 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft across this area per recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters, except light to gentle near the monsoon trough from 03N to 13N and E of 110W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell just SE of 30N140W ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas are 5-8 ft across the remainder of the waters, highest N of 28N between 122W and 128W in relatively fresh N swell, and S of the Equator west of 100W in building S-SW swell. For the forecast, the cold front W of 30N140W will enter the NW waters this afternoon and evening with a thin and brief band of fresh to strong S-SW winds ahead of it. NW swell along with this system will continue to push SE, with seas of 8-10 ft N of 22N and W of 134W through Mon. The front and swell will dissipate and decay thereafter. A trailing front or trough will move into the NW waters by mid-week, with another set of at least 8-10 ft NW swell. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next several days. S-SW swell of 8-10 ft will breach the Equator between 90W and 130W this afternoon through the early part of the week before decaying, with similar new swell and coverage by Thu. Elsewhere, seas of 5-8 ft in mixed swells will prevail, occasionally 7-10 ft across the moderate to fresh trade area. $$ Stripling