000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140145
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 06.5N100W
to 05N113W. The ITCZ extends from 05N113W to 04.5N130W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
00N to 07N between 79W and 93.5W, from 01N to 07N between 109W 
and 123W, and from 04N to 07N between 123W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure NW of the area and surface 
troughing over NW Mexico is gradually weakening today, and is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the 
nearshore waters of the Baja California Peninsula. Seas across 
this area are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
remainder of the open offshore waters of Mexico, with seas of 
5-7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. In the Gulf of California, 
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less, 
except 3-5 ft near the entrance in S-SW swell. Hazy skies 
persist across the near and offshore waters from Las Tres Marias 
to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from agricultural fires.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will shift 
northward and weaken through the remainder of the weekend, 
leading to a weak pressure gradient across the region, and gentle
to moderate winds area-wide through Thu. A surge of fresh to 
strong gap winds is forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sun
through early Mon, then again Mon night into Tue morning.
Moderate S swell will dominate seas offshore S and SW Mexico Tue
and Wed. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and
SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural 
fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, as
well as in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, along with 5-7 ft
seas in S-SW swell. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere. A weak pressure 
gradient continues to support winds of only light to gentle 
speeds across the remainder of the waters. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue offshore from the Equator to 08N. Hazy 
skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to 
lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires, with 
visibilities likely near 5 nm offshore from the Gulf of Fonseca 
to Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NE-E winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the
Papagayo region tonight through Sun morning, then moderate to
fresh Sun night through Mon morning, and again Wed night into Thu
morning. Elsewhere, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist
through Thu. Building SW swell will reach the Galapagos Islands 
Sun night with peak seas of 7-9 ft, then reach the nearshore 
waters of Central America early on Tue with peak seas of 6-7 ft
there. New SW swell should reach the Galapagos waters early 
Thu, with seas possibly building to 7-9 ft across the offshore
waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are expected from the Guatemala to the
Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced by ongoing 
agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure centered well
N of the area approximately 600 nm W-NW of Point Conception and 
lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E tradewinds from 06N to 18N and west of 
around 120W. Seas are 7-10 ft across this area. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are
7-10 ft in NW swell just SE of 30N140W ahead of an approaching
cold front. Seas are 5-8 ft across the remainder of the waters,
highest N of 28N between 120W and 127W in fresh N swell, and
S of the Equator west of 105W in S-SW swell. 

For the forecast, the cold front W of 30N140W will enter the NW
waters Sun afternoon and evening with a thin and brief band of
fresh to strong S-SW winds ahead of it. NW swell along with this
system will continue to push SE, with seas of 8-10 ft N of 22N
and W of 135W through Mon. The front and swell will dissipate 
and decay thereafter. A trailing front or trough will move into 
the NW waters by mid-week, with another set of at least 8-10 ft 
NW swell. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through 
the next several days. S-SW swell of 8-10 ft will breach the 
Equator between 90W and 130W Sun afternoon through early next 
week before decaying, with a similar set and coverage by Thu. 
Elsewhere, seas of 5-8 ft in mixed swells will prevail, 
occasionally 7-10 ft across the moderate to fresh trade area.

$$
Lewitsky