000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130114
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across Panama and Costa Rica to
near 09N84W to 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 04N114W
to 05N128W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 79W and 140W, and
from 00N to 02S between 114W and 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure NW of the area and surface 
troughing over NW Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N
winds across the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula that extends southward to the Revillagigedo Islands,
locally strong between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. 
Associated seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds 
generally prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters 
from Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec. Seas there are 5-7 ft in 
mixed NW and SW swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly light 
and variable winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less, except 
3-5 ft near the entrance in S-SW swell. Hazy skies persist 
across the near and offshore waters from Manzanillo to 
Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through this 
evening, before winds begin to diminish over the weekend. Seas 
will gradually diminish area-wide through Mon. A surge of fresh 
to strong gap winds is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon 
afternoon through Tue afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure NW of 
the area will shift northward and weaken through the weekend, 
leading to a weak pressure gradient across the region, and gentle
to moderate winds area-wide Sat through Wed. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexico offshore
waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region continues to support
winds of only light to gentle speeds across the majority of the 
Central America and northern South America offshore waters, with
very localized gap winds of 15-25 kt in the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms continue offshore of Colombia and Ecuador. Hazy 
skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to 
lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires, with 
visibilities likely near 3-5 nm downwind of Papagayo and 
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist 
across the offshore waters through early next week. Moderate gap
winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh each night
through Mon morning. Building SW swell to around 8 ft should 
begin reaching the Galapagos Islands Sun night, then reach the 
nearshore waters of Central America on Tue, producing seas of 
6-7 ft. Reduced visibilities in haze are expected from the 
Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced
by ongoing agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure near 27N131W and 
lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NE to E tradewinds from 05N to 23N and west of 
around 112W. Seas are 6-9 ft across this area. Light to gentle 
variable winds and 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell are north of 25N 
and west of 126W near the high. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
moderate, with 5-8 ft seas in mixed swell, highest S of the
Equator and west of 100W.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 6-9 ft in merging NW 
and S swell, and NE wind waves. Sat afternoon through Mon, the 
trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high 
pressure north of the area weakens and shifts farther northward. 
Fresh to locally strong winds north of the area offshore Point 
Conception, California will send fresh N seas of 6-8 ft 
southward to 27N between 120W and 128W Sat afternoon through the
remainder of the weekend. A cold front will move slowly into the
far NW waters Sun afternoon, with a brief period of fresh to 
strong southerly winds ahead of it. The front will weaken and 
gradually dissipate through Wed. NW swell generated well NW of 
the area will move into the NW waters tonight through Mon to 
produce seas of 8-11 ft north of 20N and west of 135W. Meanwhile,
cross equatorial S to SW swell will maintain seas around 8 ft 
along and south of the Equator. New cross-equatorial S-SW swell 
should reach the Equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of
the ITCZ early Mon through Tue night before subsiding. Tranquil
conditions will dominate across the open waters by the middle of
next week.

$$
Lewitsky