000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75.5W to 04N80W to 06N92W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N92W to 04.5N117W to 04N131W to 02N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 
06.5N east of 90W, and from 02.5N to 06.5N between 92W and 124W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 01.5N to 06.5N between 124W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between 1025 mb surface high pressure at 30N130W 
and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh
NW to N winds across the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula that extends southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Associated seas are 5-8 ft per recent altimeter data. Gentle NW
to W winds generally prevail across the remaining Mexican
offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec. Seas there
are 5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. In the Gulf of California, 
mainly light and variable winds prevail except for localized 
moderate wind, with seas of 3 ft or less, except 4-5 ft near the
entrance in S-SW swell. Hazy skies persist across the near and 
offshore waters from Manzanillo to Tehuantepec due to lingering 
smoke from agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are
expected across the Baja California offshore waters this 
evening, before winds begin to diminish through the weekend. 
Seas will gradually subside to 5-7 ft area-wide through Sun. 
The high center near 30N130W will shift northward and weaken 
through the weekend, leading to a very weak pressure gradient 
across the region, and gentle to moderate winds area-wide Sat 
through Tue, except for a possible surge of fresh to strong N-NE 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue morning, 
due to a temporary and locally tight pressure gradient. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible in the S-SW Mexico offshore 
waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region continues to support
winds of only light to gentle speeds across the majority of the 
Central America and northern South America offshore waters, with 
gap winds to around 15 kt across the Papagayo region. Seas are 
6-7 ft in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, 
and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue offshore of Colombia and Ecuador. Hazy skies persist 
from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke 
from ongoing agricultural fires, with visibilities likely near 5
nm downwind of Papagayo and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist 
across the offshore waters through early next week. Moderate gap
winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh each night
through Mon morning. Building SW swell to around 8 ft should 
begin reaching the Galapagos Islands Sun night, then reach the 
nearshore waters of Central America on Tue, producing seas of 
6-7 ft. Reduced visibilities in haze are expected from the 
Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced
by ongoing agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1025 mb subtropical high pressure at 
30N130W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate NE to E tradewinds from 05N to 23N and west of around 
112W. Seas are 6-9 ft across this area. Light to gentle variable
winds and 5-6 ft seas in mixed swell are north of 25N and west 
of 122W near the high. Elsewhere S of the ITCZ, SE winds are 
gentle to moderate, with 6-8 ft seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 6-9 ft in merging NW 
and S swell, and NE wind waves. Sat afternoon through Mon, the 
trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high 
pressure north of the area weakens and shifts farther northward. 
Fresh to locally strong winds north of the area offshore Point 
Conception, California will send fresh N seas of 7-9 ft southward to
28N between 120W and 128W Sat afternoon through the remainder of
the weekend. A cold front will move slowly into the far NW 
waters Sun afternoon, with a brief period of fresh to strong 
southerly winds ahead of it. The front will weaken and gradually 
dissipate through Tue. NW swell generated well NW of the area 
will move into the NW waters Fri night through Mon to produce 
seas of 8-11 ft north of 20N and west of 135W. Meanwhile, cross 
equatorial S to SW swell will maintain seas around 8 ft along and
south of the Equator. New cross-equatorial S-SW swell should 
reach the Equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the 
ITCZ early Mon through Tue before subsiding.

$$
Stripling