000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W to 06N86W to 05.5N94W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N94W to 06N103W to 04N128W to 00N139W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 07.5N east of 90W, and from 02N to 06.5N between 92W and 123W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 124W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between a 1024 mb high at 30N130W and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW to N winds within 60-120 NM of the Baja California Peninsula. Associated seas are 6-8 ft per overnight altimeter data. Seas are 5-7 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, in NW swell west of 110W, and in S-SW swell east of 110W. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds cover the remainder of the waters north of 20N and west of 108W. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds prevail south of 20N. In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds prevail except for localized moderate to fresh offshore wind surges, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft near the entrance in S-SW swell. Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters from Manzanillo to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through this evening, before winds begin to diminish. Seas of 6-8 ft will persist through this afternoon, then will abate to 5-7 ft area- wide through early next week. The high pressure near 30N130W will shift northward and weaken through the weekend, leading to a weak pressure gradient across the region, and gentle to moderate winds area-wide Sat through Tue, except for a possible surge of fresh to strong N-NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue morning due to a temporary and locally tight pressure gradient. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S-SW Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is supporting winds of only light to gentle speeds across the majority of the Central America and northern South America offshore waters, with fresh gap winds to 15 to 20 kt across the Papagayo region. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia, Panama and Ecuador to the west of mid-level troughing. Hazy skies persist from the Papagayo region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural fires. For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist across the offshore waters through early next week. Moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh each night through early morning. Building SW swell to around 8 ft should begin reaching the Galapagos Islands Sun night, and reach the nearshore waters of Central America on Tue. Reduced visibilities in haze are expected from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between a 1024 mb subtropical high pressure at 30N130W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 05N to 22N and west of around 113W. Seas are 6-9 ft across this area. Light to gentle variable winds and 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell are north of 25N and west of 122W near the high. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate, with mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds through Sat, with seas generally remaining 6-9 ft in merging NW and S swell, and NE wind waves. Sat afternoon through Mon, the trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts farther northward. Fresh to locally strong winds north of the area offshore Point Conception, California will send fresh N seas of 7-9 ft south of 30N to 28N between 120W and 128W Sat afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. A cold front will move slowly into the far NW waters Sun evening, with a brief period of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. The front will weaken and gradually dissipate through Tue. NW swell generated well NW of the area will move into the NW waters Fri night through Mon to produce seas of 8-10 ft north of 20N and west of 135W. Meanwhile, cross equatorial S to SW swell will maintain seas around 8 ft along and south of the Equator. New cross-equatorial S-SW swell should reach the Equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the ITCZ early Mon through Tue before subsiding. $$ Stripling