000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120151
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100| UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across Panama to the Gulf of
Papagayo near 11N86W to 06N98W. The ITCZ extends from 06N98W to
06N115W to 05N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 08N between 80W and 86W, from 04N to 08N between 112W and
116W, and from 03N to 06N between 120W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a 1022 mb high at 31N129W and a surface 
trough over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW to N 
winds within 60-120 NM of the Baja California Peninsula.
Associated seas are 6-8 ft. Seas are 5-7 ft across the remainder
of the offshore waters, in NW swell west of 110W, and in S-SW
swell east of 110W. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds cover the 
remainder of the waters north of 17N and west of Cabo Corrientes.
Gentle to moderate SW-W winds prevail south of 17N. In the Gulf
of California, mainly light and variable winds prevail along with
seas of 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft near the entrance in S-SW
swell. Hazy skies persist across the near and offshore waters 
from Manzanillo to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from 
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri 
evening, before winds begin to diminish. Seas of 6-8 ft will also 
persist through Fri afternoon, then will be 5-7 ft area-wide
through early next week. The high pressure near 31N129W will 
shift northward and weaken through the weekend, leading to a weak
pressure gradient across the region, and gentle to moderate 
winds area-wide Sat through Tue, except for a surge of fresh 
N-NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue 
morning. Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S-SW
Mexico offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural 
fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh offshore winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo and the Gulf of Fonseca early this evening. Elsewhere, 
a weak pressure gradient is supporting winds of only light to 
gentle speeds across the remainder of the Central America and
northern South America offshore waters. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore
Colombia, Panama and southern Costa Rica, and 5-6 ft elsewhere,
except locally to 7 ft in S-SW swell S-SW of the Galapagos
Islands. Hazy skies persist this evening from the Papagayo 
region to Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing 
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will persist 
across the offshore waters through early next week. Moderate gap
winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh each night
through early morning. Building SW swell to around 8 ft should 
begin reaching the Galapagos Islands Sun night, and reach the 
nearshore waters of Central America on Tue while decaying. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible from the Guatemala to 
the Costa Rica offshores due to smoke produced by agricultural 
fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1022 mb subtropical high pressure at 
31N129W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 04N to 21N and west
of 115W or so. Light to gentle variable winds and 4-6 ft seas in
mixed swell are north of 24N and west of 126W near the high. 
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft
across the remainder of the waters in mixed swell.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 7-9 ft in merging NW 
and S swell, and NE wind waves. By Sat afternoon through Mon, 
the trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high 
pressure north of the area shifts farther northward and weakens. 
Fresh to locally strong winds north of the area offshore Point
Conception, California will send fresh N seas of 7-9 ft south of
30N to 28N between 119W and 126W Sat afternoon through the
remainder of the weekend. A cold front will move slowly into 
the far NW waters Sun evening, with a brief period of fresh to 
strong southerly winds ahead of it. The front will weaken and 
gradually dissipate through Tue. NW swell generated well NW of 
the area will move into the NW waters Fri night through Mon to 
produce seas of 8- 10 ft north of 20N and west of 135W.
Meanwhile, the long-period S to SW swell of around 8 ft will 
linger. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial S-SW swell should 
reach the Equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the 
ITCZ early Mon through Tue before decaying.

$$
Lewitsky