000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 07.5N85W to 06.5N94W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06.5N94W to 06N115W to beyond 03.5N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 
00N to 07.5N east of 86W, and from 02N to 08N between 114W and
132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a 1022 mb high at 31N130W and a surface 
trough over NW Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N winds within 
120 NM of the Baja peninsula, and extends southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Recent satellite altimeter data suggests 
that seas remain 7-9 ft in mixed NW swell across this area. 
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-8 ft south 
of SW and S Mexico in mainly SW swell, and 2-4 ft in the central
and southern Gulf of California. Hazy skies persist across the
near and offshore waters from Manzanillo to Tehuantepec due to 
lingering smoke from agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri 
evening, before winds begin to diminish. Seas of 6 to 8 ft will
continue through Fri afternoon. High pressure along 130W this
afternoon will shift northward and weaken through the weekend, 
leading to a weak pressure gradient across the region, and 
gentle to moderate winds area wide Sat through Tue. Seas will
gradually subside to 5 to 7 ft by early Mon. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is forcing winds of 
only light to gentle speeds across this region. Moderate gap 
winds are across the Papagayo region. Seas are 5-6 ft in mainly 
SW swell, except to 7 ft S through SW of the Galapagos Islands.
Hazy skies persist this afternoon from the Papagayo region to
Tehuantepec due to lingering smoke from ongoing agricultural
fires.

For the forecast, the seasonally tranquil conditions will 
persist across the Central American and equatorial waters 
through early next week. Moderate gap winds across the papagayo
region will pulse to fresh each night. Large SW swell should 
begin reaching the Galapagos Islands on Mon and reach the 
nearshore waters of Central America on Tue. Reduced visibilities 
in haze are possible from the Guatemala to the Costa Rica 
offshores due to smoke produced by agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1022 mb subtropical high pressure at 
31N130W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 07N-22N west of 115W. 
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 7-9 ft from 
from 05N to 22N and west of 115W in a combination of mixed swell
and NE wind waves. South of 05N, seas are 6-8 ft in SW to S 
swell. North of 22N, seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 8-9 ft in merging NW 
and S swell and NE wind waves. By Sat afternoon through Mon, the
trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high 
pressure north of the area shifts farther northward and weakens. 
The large, long-period S to SW swell currently dominating seas 
across the waters S of 20N will gradually abate. A weak cold 
front will move slowly into the far NW waters Sun evening, with a
brief period of fresh southerly winds ahead of it. The front 
will weaken and gradually dissipate through Tue. NW swell 
generated well NW of the area will move into the NW waters Fri 
night through Mon to produce seas of 8 to 10 ft N of 25N and W of
135W. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial S swell should reach 
the equator late Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the ITCZ by 
Mon.

$$
Stripling