000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 08.5N84W to 05.5N97W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05.5N97W to 06N115W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to
07.5N east of 96W, and from 04N to 09.5N west of 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a 1022 mb high at 29N130W and a surface 
trough over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW to N winds
within 120 NM of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere, winds are gentle
to moderate. Seas are 7-9 ft west of the Baja peninsula 
primarily in mixed NW swell, 6-8 ft south of SW and S Mexico in 
SW swell, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri 
evening. High pressure along 130W will shift northwestward and 
weaken through the weekend, leading to gentle to moderate winds 
area wide Sat through Mon. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is forcing winds of 
only light to gentle speeds across this region. Gap winds across
the Papagayo region are less than 20 kt. Seas are 5-7 ft in
mainly SW swell.

For the forecast, the seasonally tranquil conditions will 
prevail across the Central American and equatorial waters through
early next week. Large SW swell should begin reaching the 
Galapagos Islands on Mon and reach the nearshore waters of
Central America on Tue. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible from the Guatemala to Costa Rica offshores due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1022 mb subtropical high pressure at 
29N130W and lower pressure along of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 07N-22N west of 115W. 
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 7-9 ft from 
07N-20N west of 100W in a combination of mixed swell and NE wind 
waves. South of 07N, seas are 6-8 ft in SW to S swell. North of 
20N, seas are 6-8 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the tradewinds 
through Sat, with seas generally remaining 8-9 ft in merging NW 
and S swell and NE wind waves. By Sat afternoon through Mon, the
trades are anticipated to begin a weakening trend as high 
pressure north of the area shifts farther northward and weakens. 
The large, long-period S to SW swell currently dominating seas 
today across the waters S of 20N will gradually abate. Looking 
ahead, new cross-equatorial S swell should reach the equator late
Sun and build seas 8-10 ft south of the ITCZ by Mon.

$$
Stripling