000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10.5N75W to 09N87W to 
05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 06N108W to 04.5N135W to
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 01N-07.5N E of 86W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N-09N between 
104W-138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a subtropical ridge along 29N-30n and a 
surface trough over Baja California is supporting fresh to 
locally strong NW to N winds west of the Baja peninsula to 20N. 
This is occurring as a weak cold front is approaching the area, 
and crossing 30N this morning along 117W. Strong and very gusty W
gap winds are funneling into the northern Gulf of California, 
while strong NW winds are spilling across the Gulf of Santa Clara
and into the far norther Gulf of California, ahead of the front.
Seas across the portion of the Gulf are likely peaking at 6-7 
ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate across the remainder
of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Baja, 
6-7 ft in the waters south of Cabo Corrientes, and 1-4 ft in the
central and southern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will
prevail along the Baja California offshore waters through Fri. 
The strong W gap winds over the N Gulf of California will 
diminish quickly by this afternoon, as a weak cold front sweeps 
across the region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through the weekend. Reduced visibilities in haze are 
possible in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke 
produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is forcing winds of 
only gentle to moderate speeds across this region. However,
nocturnal gap winds to near 20 kt prevail across the Papagayo
region, and moderate NW winds are across the Gulf of Panama. Seas
are 5-7 ft in the Central American offshores and 7-8 ft in a SW 
swell in the equatorial offshores. Active convection is along the
W coast of Colombia and extends offshore to near 86W.

For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will prevail 
across the Central American and equatorial waters through the 
weekend. Large SW swell over the equatorial waters should 
gradually diminish through Thu. Reduced visibility in haze is 
likely from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires, with areas of visibilities 3 nm or less 
possible.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1023 mb subtropical high pressure at 
32N133W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 06N to 22N,
west of 115W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 
8-10 ft in a combination of S to SW swell and NE wind waves 
south of 17N and west of 100W. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the trades 
through Sat. On Sun, the trades are anticipated to weaken
slightly. The large, long-period S to SW swell currently
dominating seas across the waters S of 20N will gradually abate.
By Thu, the S to SW swell will subside below 8 ft, with 
tradewind-driven waves remaining in the 7-9 ft range through Sat.

$$
Stripling