000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100741
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 08N108W to
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
04N-08N between 120W-140W. Additionally, a surface trough 
extends from 02N79W to 02N89W with scattered moderate deep 
convection from 00N-03N between 83W-90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a subtropical ridge along 29N and a surface
trough over Baja California is supporting fresh to locally strong
NW to N winds west of the Baja peninsula. Strong W gap winds are
funneling into the N Gulf of California - observed by an 0519 
UTC overpass of the ASCAT-B scatterometer, as a weak cold front 
approaches the area. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. 
Seas are 6-7 ft west of Baja, 5-7 ft in the waters south of Cabo 
Corrientes, and 1-4 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will
prevail along the Baja offshore waters through Fri. The strong W
gap winds over the N Gulf of California will diminish by this 
afternoon, as a weak cold front moves across the region. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. 
Reduced visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient is forcing winds of only gentle to
moderate conditions across this region. Seas are 5-7 ft in the 
Central American offshores and 6-8 ft in a SW swell in the 
equatorial offshores.

For the forecast, seasonally tranquil conditions will prevail 
across the Central American and equatorial waters through the 
weekend. Large SW swell over the equatorial waters should 
gradually diminish tomorrow and Thu. Reduced visibility in haze 
is likely from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1025 mb subtropical high pressure at 
34N138W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 07N to 22N,
west of 115W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 
8-9 ft in a combination of S to SW swell and NE wind waves south
of 17N and west of 100W. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the trades 
through Sat. On Sun, the trades are anticipated to weaken
slightly. The large, long-period S to SW swell currently up to 
20N will gradually abate. By Thu, the S to SW swell will abate 
below 8 ft, with tradewind-driven waves remaining in the 7-9 ft 
range through Sat.

$$
Landsea