000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100312
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 07N110W to
to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N-10N between 118W-137W. Additionally,
a surface trough extends from 02N79W to 02N90W with scattered
moderate and isolated strong deep convection from 00N-02N between
85W-90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a subtropical ridge along 29N and a surface
trough over Baja California is supporting moderate to locally 
fresh NW to N winds west of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere, winds 
are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-7 ft west of Baja, 5-7 ft in 
the waters south of Cabo Corrientes, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail along the Baja offshore waters through Fri. A brief 
period of strong W winds is expected tonight and tomorrow morning
in the N Gulf of California, as a surface trough moves across 
the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Reduced visibilities in 
haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to 
smoke produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient is forcing winds of only gentle to
moderate conditions across this region. Seas are 4-6 ft in the 
Central American offshores and 6-8 ft in a SW swell in the
equatorial offshores.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate breeze conditions will 
prevail across the Central American and equatorial waters through
the weekend. Large SW swell over the equatorial waters should 
gradually diminish tomorrow and Thu. Reduced visibility in haze 
is likely from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a 1024 mb subtropical high pressure at
33N140W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E tradewinds from 05N to 23N,
west of 115W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 
8-10 ft in a combination of SW to S swell and NE wind waves south
of 17N and west of 95W. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the trades 
through Sat. On Sun, the trades are anticipated to weaken
slightly. The large, long-period SW to S swell will reach up to 
20N later tonight, before gradually abating. By Thu, the SW to S
swell will abate below 8 ft, with tradewind-driven waves 
remaining in the 7-9 ft range through Sat.

$$
Landsea