402 
AXPZ20 KNHC 092031
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 05N102W. The ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 07N110W to 
05N130W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 01N to 09N between 95W and 105W, and from 02N to
09N between 115W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a subtropical ridge and lower pressure over
Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds west
of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate.
Seas are 6-7 ft west of Baja, 4-6 ft in the waters south of Cabo
Corrientes, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will
prevail along the Baja offshore waters through Fri, building seas
to 9 ft by Thu. A brief period of strong W winds is expected Wed
morning in the northern Gulf of California, as a surface trough 
moves across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas will prevail elsewhere through the end of the week. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data found moderate to fresh E to NE winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate N winds persist in the 
Gulf of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region
and 4-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
moderate with 4-6 ft seas in a SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will decrease tonight. Moderate N winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will persist through Wed afternoon before 
decreasing. A gentle to moderate breeze will prevail elsewhere 
through the end of the week. Large SW swell near the Galapagos 
waters will begin to abate early Wed. Reduced visibility in haze 
is likely from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E trade winds from 03N to 23N, west of 115W. Elsewhere, winds 
are gentle to moderate. Seas are 8-10 ft in a combination of SW 
to S swell and NE wind waves south of 18N and west of 93W. Seas
are 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is anticipated in the trade winds
during the next several days. The long-period SW to S swell will
reach up to 20N by tonight, before gradually abating. By Thu, the
SW to S swell will abate below 8 ft, with trade wind driven waves
remaining in the 7-9 ft range through the week.

$$
Flynn