864 
AXPZ20 KNHC 091527
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 05N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N110W to 05N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N between 95W and
107W, and from 03N to 08N between 120W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a subtropical ridge in the East Pacific and
lower pressure over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate
to fresh NW winds west of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere, winds
are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-7 ft west of Baja, 4-6 ft in
the waters south Cabo Corrientes, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail along the Baja offshore waters through Fri, building seas
to 9 ft. A brief period of strong W winds is expected in the N
Gulf of California Tue night and Wed morning, as a surface trough
moves across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas will prevail elsewhere through the end of the week. Reduced
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

E gap winds are fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
while fresh N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-7 ft in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region, 5-8 ft primarily in SW swell in the 
equatorial waters, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region and moderate to fresh N winds across the Gulf of 
Panama will diminish by tonight. A gentle to moderate breeze will
prevail elsewhere through the end of the week. Large SW swell 
reaching the Galapagos waters today will abate on Wed. Reduced 
visibility in haze is likely from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to 
smoke produced by agricultural fires. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E trade winds from 03N and 24N, west of 115W. Elsewhere, winds
are gentle to moderate. Seas are 8-10 ft in a combination of SW
to S swell and NE wind waves south of 18N and west of 95W, and
5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is anticipated in the trade winds
during the next several days. The long-period SW to S swell will
reach up to 20N by tonight, before gradually abating. By Thu, the
SW to S swell will abate below 8 ft, with trade wind driven waves
remaining in the 7-9 ft range through the week.

$$ 
Flynn