000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N97WW. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N97W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 84W and 97W, from
04N to 07N between 116W and 122W, and from 02N to 04N between 
128W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass confirmed moderate to fresh N to NW 
winds prevail west of the Baja Peninsula and extend as far south
as the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. 
Winds are light in the northern Gulf of California with 1-2 ft 
seas, increasing to a gentle to moderate N to NE breeze south of 
25N with 3-4 ft seas. South of Cabo Corrientes, winds are light 
with a 5-6 ft long period southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NW winds will prevail 
along the Baja offshore waters through the week, briefly 
increasing to a fresh to strong breeze in localized coastal 
areas nightly through Thu. A brief period of strong W winds is 
expected in the northern Gulf of California Wed. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Reduced 
visibilities in haze are possible in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite data found fresh to strong easterly gap winds
and seas to 9 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate
northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama, with seas to 6
ft. Moderate SE winds are noted south of the Galapagos Islands.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in a southerly 
swell prevail.

For the forecast, easterly gap winds will continue to pulse to
strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Tue. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will decrease 
Wed. A gentle to moderate breeze will prevail elsewhere through 
the week. Large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters Tue 
before abating Wed. Reduced visibility in haze will be possible 
from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by agricultural
fires. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted from 03N to 23N and 
west of 115W. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted from 06N to 
12N across the basin. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
A combination of NE and S swell is supporting a large area of 
8-10 ft seas SW of a line from 16N140W to 09N114W to 03S94W. Seas
in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the combination of NE and southerly swell will
continue producing seas of 8 to 10 ft between 05N and 15N west 
of 110W through Tue, before beginning a slow abating trend 
for the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will 
prevail across the tradewind belt S of 20N. Large SW swell will 
continue building seas to 10 ft near and S of the Equator through
Tue night.

$$
Flynn