000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N and E of 90W, and N of 01N and W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure over central California and a 1018 mb low near 34N124W with associated surface trough extending SW to near 29N127W is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters where seas remain in the 5 to 8 ft range in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle, except for moderate to fresh NW winds at the entrance of the gulf where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere along the gulf. A weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle winds elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Moderate haze caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters from near Nayarit to Chiapas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail along the Baja offshore waters through the middle of the week, briefly increasing to fresh to strong speeds at night N of Punta Eugenia Sun through Tue. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Wed. Reduced visibilities in haze should be expected through the weekend in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending to 89W, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending to 05N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell are across the remainder of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds with 7 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell remain SW of the Galapagos Islands while light to gentle winds are ongoing in the Ecuador offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 89W through Tue morning. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Slight to moderate southerly swell will prevail through the weekend. A large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters early next week. Reduced visibility in haze will prevail from Guatemala to Nicaragua through the weekend due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends SE from 31N142W to the offshore waters of Cabo San Lazaro and N of 15N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N prevail just W of 113W with seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell. To the N, a surface trough extends from 30N125W to 24N140W. Gentle to locally moderate winds are in the wake of the trough. Light to gentle winds are ongoing near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, where seas are 7 to 10 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are present south of the Equator where mixed cross equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 18N west of 110W for the next several days. High pressure to the north will freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large SW swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building seas to 9 ft Mon night and Tue. $$ ERA