000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 02N80W to 08N86W to
05N97W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 04N120W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03.5S to 08N E of 93W, and from 06N to 11N between 111W and
119W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N between 
91W and 103W, and from 02N to 07N W of 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N142W extends 
SE to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro. The pressure gradient between
high pressure over central California and a 1019 mb low near
33N125W with associated surface trough extending SW to near
24N140W is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds 
across the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters where seas 
remain in the 5 to 8 ft range in NW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are light to gentle, except for moderate to
fresh NW winds at the entrance of the gulf where seas are in the
5 to 6 ft range. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere along the gulf.
A weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle winds 
elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 
to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Moderate haze caused by smoke 
from agricultural fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility 
down to 5 nm in the offshore waters from near Nayarit to Chiapas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
along the Baja offshore waters through the middle of the week,
briefly increasing to fresh to strong speeds at night N of Punta
Eugenia Sun through Tue. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Wed. Reduced 
visibilities in haze should be expected through the weekend in 
the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region, extending to 92W, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly 
swell are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending to 05N. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell 
are across the remainder of the central America offshore waters.
Gentle to moderate S to SE winds with 7 to 8 ft seas in moderate
southerly swell remain SW of the Galapagos Islands while light to
gentle winds are ongoing in the Ecuador offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each 
night from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 93W 
through Tue morning. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to 
moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. 
Slight to moderate southerly swell will prevail through the 
weekend. A large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters early 
next week. Reduced visibility in haze will prevail from Guatemala
to Nicaragua through the weekend due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N142W extends 
SE to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro and N of 15N. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N prevail just W of 
113W with seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell. To the N, a surface
trough extends from 30N125W to 24N140W. Gentle to locally
moderate winds are in the wake of the trough. Light to 
gentle winds are ongoing near and south of the ITCZ to the 
Equator, where seas are 7 to 10 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds are present south of the Equator where
mixed cross equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly 
swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 18N west of 
110W for the next several days. High pressure to the north will 
freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through 
at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large SW 
swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building seas to 9 ft
Mon night and Tue.

$$
Ramos