882 
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 01N80W to 07N90W to 05N96W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 04N120W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S
to 08N E of 91W, and from 06N to 10N between 110W and 121W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 91W and
97W, and from 02N to 07N W of 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N152W extends 
SE to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro. This ridge is combining with 
lower pressure along Mexico to generate moderate to fresh N to 
NW winds across the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters
where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range in NW swell. In the Gulf 
of California, winds are light to gentle, except for moderate NW
winds at the entrance of the gulf where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft
range. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere along the gulf. A weak
pressure gradient supports light to gentle winds elsewhere in the
S and SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 6 ft in mixed
SW and NW swell. A recent altimeter pass confirms these seas
values in the region of Tehuantepec. Moderate haze caused by 
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico continue to reduce 
visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters from near Nayarit 
to Chiapas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
along the Baja offshore waters through the middle of the week,
briefly increasing to fresh to strong speeds at night N of Punta
Eugenia Sun through Tue. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Wed. Reduced 
visibilities in haze should be expected through the weekend in 
the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region, extending to 92W, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft. Moderate 
northerly winds with 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell 
are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending to 04N. Light to 
gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell 
exist across the remainder of the central America offshore 
waters. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds with 7 to 8 ft seas in 
moderate southerly swell are evident south of the Galapagos 
Islands and Ecuador offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each 
night from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 92W-93W 
through Tue morning. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to 
moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. 
Slight to moderate southerly swell will prevail through the 
weekend. A large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters early 
next week. Reduced visibility in haze will prevail from Guatemala
to Nicaragua through the weekend due to smoke produced by 
agricultural fires. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N152W extends 
SE to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro and N of 15N. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N just W of 110W. Seas
in this region are 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell. To the N, the
remnants of a cold front extends from 30N128W to 25N140W and
light to gentle winds dominate this waters. Light to gentle 
winds are ongoing near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, 
where seas are 7 to 10 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. Moderate to 
fresh SE winds are present south of the Equator where mixed cross
equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly 
swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 18N west of 
110W for the next several days. High pressure to the north will 
freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through 
at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large SW 
swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building seas to 9 ft
Mon night and Tue.

$$
Ramos