000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 05N77W to 04N96W. The ITCZ continues from 04N96W to 08N119W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 00N to 08N and E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 107W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high near 28N128W extends SE to offshore of Cabo San Lucas. This ridge is combining with weak low pressure over the northern Gulf of California to produce moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the Baja Peninsula Sur waters, and gentle to moderate NW winds along the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 8 ft off the Baja California coast and 3 to 5 ft along the southern half of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Moderate haze caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters from near Nayarit to Chiapas. For the forecast, low pressure in the SW CONUS and northern Gulf of California will maintain gentle NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore of Baja California through Sat morning. Winds will become NW at fresh to locally strong speeds through the weekend as the low pressure deepens and moves further inland and high pressure shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of Manzanillo through Tue. Reduced visibilities in haze should be expected through the weekend in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending to 93W, with 7 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are noted over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell exist across the rest of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds with 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are evident south of the Galapagos Islands and offshore from Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at night from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 93W through Tue morning. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Moderate southerly swell will continue across all offshore waters tonight before subsiding this weekend. Then large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters early next week. Reduced visibility in haze will prevail from Guatemala to Nicaragua through the weekend due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge centered by a 1029 mb high near 37N154W, then continues to a 1020 mb high near 28N128W and continues SE to the Baja California Sur offshore waters and N of 15N. This pressure pattern is producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20W just W of 110W. Seas in this region are 7 to 8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell. To the N, a cold front extends from 30N131W to 27N140W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds follow the front along with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. Moderate to fresh SE winds are present south of the Equator where mixed cross equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 15N west of 110W for the next several days. The cold front will move into the waters north of 26N and west of 125W through Sat before dissipating by Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the north will freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large SW swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building seas to 9 ft Mon night and Tue. $$ ERA