000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N77W to 03N90W to 03N96W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N96W to 08N117W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 00N
to 07N E of 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 
10N between 108W and 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge centered by a 1029 mb high near 36N154W extends 
SE to offshore of Cabo San Lucas. This ridge is combining with 
weak low pressure over the northern Gulf of California to 
produce moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds across the Baja
Peninsula Sur waters, and gentle to moderate NW winds along the
southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off 
the Baja California coast and 3 to 5 ft along the southern half
of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. 
Moderate haze caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico 
continue to reduce visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters
from near Nayarit to Chiapas.

For the forecast, low pressure in the SW CONUS and northern Gulf
of California will maintain gentle NW winds north of Punta 
Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore 
of Baja California through tonight. Winds will become NW at 
fresh to locally strong speeds Sat through Mon as the low 
pressure deepens and moves further inland while high pressure 
shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 
are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of 
Manzanillo through Tue. Reduced visibilities in haze should be 
expected through the weekend in the S and SW Mexican offshore 
waters due to smoke produced by agricultural fires.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region, extending to 93W, with 7 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds with 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell 
are present at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell exist across the rest 
of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to 
SE winds with 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are 
evident south of the Galapagos Islands and offshore from Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at night from
the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 93W through Tue
morning. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue
across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate 
breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Moderate 
southerly swell will continue across all offshore waters today 
before subsiding this weekend. Then large SW swell will reach the
Galapagos waters early Tue. Reduced visibility in haze will 
continue today from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced 
by agricultural fires. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge centered by a 1029 mb high near 36N154W extends 
SE to the Baja California Sur offshore waters and N of 15N. This 
pressure pattern is producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
between the ITCZ and 20W just W of 110W. Seas in this region are 
7 to 8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell. N of 20N, a cold front 
extends from 30N130W to 27N140W. Gentle to moderate N to NE 
winds follow the front along with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle 
winds are ongoing near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, 
where seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. Moderate to 
fresh SE winds are present south of the Equator where mixed cross
equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly 
swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 15N west of 
110W for the next several days. The cold front will move into 
the waters north of 26N and west of 125W today into Sat before 
dissipating Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the north
will freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N 
through at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. 
Large SW swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building 
seas to 9 ft Mon night and Tue.

$$
Ramos