000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 10N80W to 03.5N95W. An ITCZ continues from 03.5N95W to 07N114W to 04.5N127W to beyond 03N140W. A second ITCZ in the Southern Hemisphere stretches from 01.5S97W to 00.5S104W to beyond 03.4S111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 00N to 05N E of 95W, S of 01.5S between 98W and 109W, and from 03.5N to 09.5N between 100W and 136W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 100W and 104.5W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high near 24N123W has collapsed tonight, leaving a weak ridge extending SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This ridge is combining with weak low pressure across central California to produce gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the Baja Norte waters to Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore of the Baja Waters to 20N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across these waters. Fresh SW gap winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds with 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell persist across the southern Mexico offshore waters. Moderate haze caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico has reduced visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters from near Manzanillo to Tehuantepec. For the forecast, westerly gap winds across the northern Gulf of California will become fresh to locally strong overnight, then gradually diminish Fri morning. Weakening low pressure drifting southeastward across central California will maintain gentle NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore of Baja California to 20N today. Winds will become NW at fresh to locally strong speeds Sat through Mon as the low pressure moves further inland and high pressure shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of Manzanillo through Tue. Reduced visibilities in haze should be expected between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec today due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds continue across the Papagayo region tonight, extending to 89W, with seas at 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are present at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell exist across the rest of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are evident near the Galapagos Islands and offshore from Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will persist from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 90W through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Moderate southerly swell will continue across all offshore waters today before subsiding this weekend. Then large SW swell will reach the Galapagos waters early Tue. Reduced visibility in haze will continue today from Guatemala to Nicaragua due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high situated offshore of Baja California near 24N123W earlier tonight has collapsed, leaving a weak ridge extending southeastward to SE Mexico. This pressure pattern is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in decaying NW swell north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds from 06N to 20N and west of 115W, and from the ITCZ to 18N between 110W and 115W. Seas in both areas range from 7 to 9 ft in a mix of moderate NW swell and NE tradewind seas. Light to gentle winds exist near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed SW and SE swell. Gentle to moderate SE winds are present south of the Equator where mixed cross equatorial swell is producing seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 15N west of 110W for the next several days. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 26N and west of 125W Fri into Sat before dissipating Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the north will freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through at least Mon, helping to maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft. Large SW swell will reach the equator Mon afternoon, building seas to 9 ft Mon night and Tue. $$ Stripling