000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74.5W to 07N90W. An ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 07N109W, where a surface trough is located along 113W, then the ITCZ resumes from 06.5N115W to 04N128W to beyond 04.5N140W. A second ITCZ in the Southern Hemisphere stretches from 03S97W to 02.5S108W to beyond 03.4S114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 00.5N to 07N between 79W and 92W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 104W and 139W. Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are noted S of 02S between 86W and 109W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection noted from 09N to 13N between 95W and 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high near 24N123W continues to combine with weak low pressure across central California to produce gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the Baja Norte waters to Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore of the Baja Waters to 20N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across these waters. Moderate to fresh SW gap winds have begun to develop across the northern Gulf of California, where seas remain 3 ft or less. Light to gentle winds with 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist across the southern Mexico offshore waters. Moderate haze caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico has reduced visibility down to 5 nm in the offshore waters west of Cabo Corrientes, and along the coast of southern Mexico. For the forecast, westerly gap winds across the northern Gulf of California will become fresh to locally strong tonight, then gradually diminish Fri morning. Low pressure drifting southeastward along the central California coast will maintain gentle to moderate W to NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds elsewhere offshore of Baja California to 20N through Fri. Winds will become NW at fresh to locally strong speeds Sat through Mon as the low pressure moves inland and high pressure shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of Manzanillo through Tue. Reduced visibilities should be expected between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec through Fri due to smoke produced by agricultural fires. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds have commenced across the Papagayo region tonight, extending to 8W, with seas at 5 to 7 ft. Moderate northerly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in gentle to moderate southerly swell are present at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in gentle to moderate southerly swell exist for the rest of the central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are evident near the Galapagos Islands and offshore from Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will persist from the Gulf of Papagayo region westward to near 90W through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Moderate southerly swell will linger across all offshore waters through Fri before subsiding this weekend. Then large SW swell should reach the Galapagos waters late Mon night and spread into the coastal waters of Central America through Tue. Reduced visibilities offshore from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras due to smoke produced by agricultural fires will continue into Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high is situated offshore of Baja California near 24N123W, extending a weak ridge southeastward to SE Mexico. This pressure pattern is producing gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in decaying NW swell north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds from 06N to 20N and west of 115W, and from the ITCZ to 18N west of 110W. Seas in both areas range from 7 to 9 ft in a mix of moderate NW swell and NE tradewind seas. Light to gentle winds exist near and south of the ITCZ to the Equator, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in S to SE swell. Gentle to moderate SE winds are present south of the Equator. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft between 05N and 15N west of 110W for the next several days. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 26N and west of 125W Fri into Sat before dissipating Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the north will freshen the winds across the tradewind belt south of 20N through at least Mon, with seas remaining 8 to 10 ft. $$ Stripling