000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 08.5N91W. An ITCZ continues from 08.5N91W to 08N105W, where a surface trough is located near 07N108W, then the ITCZ resumes from 07N110W across 05N125W to beyond 140W at 04.5N. A second ITCZ in the Southern Hemisphere stretches from 03S97W across 03S110W to beyond 120W at 03.5N. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 06N between 78W and 89W, and up to 100 nm along either side of the second ITCZ. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is near the surface trough and first ITCZ from 05N to 12N between 97W and 109W. Scattered showers are evident up to 80 nm along either side of the rest of ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail across the Baja California waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight as low pressure prevails just offshore of Central California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell there. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere across the waters of Baja California and extend to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 5 to 7 ft also there. Strong S to SW winds have developed across the far northern Gulf of California, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas, and light haze due to agricultural fires are present across the southern Mexico offshore waters. A middle to upper level trough digging into the regional waters along 120W has induced an area of scattered convection aloft that has shifted northeastward across Baja Sur overnight and into Nayarit and southern Sinaloa in recent hours. For the forecast, strong SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California to continue through early Thu morning, then diminish to moderate by Thu afternoon, then pulse to fresh Thu night. Low pressure drifting SE along the Central California coast will maintain gentle to moderate W to NW winds offshore Baja Norte through early Fri. Northerly winds will freshen across all offshore waters of Baja California Fri night through Mon as the low pressure moves inland and high pressure shifts closer to the region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters E of Manzanillo through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent easterly winds north of the monsoon trough are generating scattered strong thunderstorms along much of the coast of Guatemala and extend inland across portions of Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist in the offshore waters of Colombia and northern Ecuador. Moderate to fresh gap winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found across the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft north of the equator, and 5 to 8 ft in southerly swell south of the equator. Light to moderate haze due to agricultural fires is visible in the Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters. For the forecast, Caribbean trade winds funneling through the mountain valleys along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border will cause fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region to pulse to strong at night late tonight through the weekend. These winds are expected to extend beyond 90W each night. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week, including northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Southerly swell will increase to moderate in the waters near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today through Fri before subsiding this weekend. Looking ahead, a new pulse of large SW cross equatorial swell is expected to reach the Galapagos waters Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1025 mb high near 31N148W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 115W, and between 07N and 15N between 105W and 115W. Scattered strong convection is occurring within 240 nm either side of a trough about the ITCZ along 106W-107W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N, except 8 to 9 ft N of 27N between 122W and 139W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are found south of 20N and west of 130W. Seas in 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere north of the Equator. South of the Equator to 3.4S, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range in S to SE swell. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft between 05N and 15N west of 110W for the next several days. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 28N and west of 130W Fri into early Sat before dissipating Sat night. As this occurs, high pressure to the N will freshen the winds across the trade wind belt S of 20N through at least Mon, with seas building 8 to 10 ft. $$ Forecaster Chan