000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N81W through 07N96W to 07N105W. An ITCZ continues from 07N105W through 07N128W to beyond 05N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 03S94W to 02.5S110W to beyond 03.4S118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found N of 01N E of 84W, and S of 02.5S between 94W and 118W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10.5N between 98W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail across the Baja California waters N of Cabos San Lazaro this evening as low pressure prevails just offshore of Central California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell there. Gentle to moderate N o NW winds area across the waters of Baja Sur and extend to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, with locally fresh winds near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft also there. Moderate to fresh southerly winds have begun across the far northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas, and light haze due to agricultural fires are present across the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, the low pressure off of Central California will shift SE and inland through late Fri. This will allow fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California to reach strong to near-gale force tonight through early Thu morning, then diminish to between moderate and fresh by Thu noon. High pressure well to the NW will build in modestly across the Baja California waters Fri through the weekend to produce fresh northerly winds this weekend, where seas will generally remain 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate seas are expected across all the Mexican offshore waters through this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent easterly winds north of the monsoon trough are generating scattered strong thunderstorms along most of the coast of El Salvador and extend well inland across Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist in the offshore waters of Colombia and northern Ecuador. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found across the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft north of the equator, and 5 to 8 ft in southerly swell south of the equator. Light haze due to agricultural fires is visible in the Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters. For the forecast, trade winds funneling through the mountain valleys along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border will cause nighttime fresh to strong easterly gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region from late tonight through the weekend. Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Southerly swell will increase to moderate in the waters near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight through Fri before subsiding this weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1024 mb high near 32N146W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 120W, and between 06N and 15N between 110W and 120W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N, except 8 to 9 ft N of 27N between 125W and 135W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are found south of 20N and west of 130W. Seas in 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere north of the Equator. South of the Equator to 3.4S, seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range in S swell. For the forecast, NW to N swell will combine with southerly swell to cause 7 to 9 ft seas between 05N and 15N west of 115W for the next several days. Winds across the trade wind zone to 20N and W of 120W will freshen Fri through Sun as the ridge to the N builds modestly SE and into the region. A weak cold front will move into the waters north of 20N and west of 120W Fri into Sat. $$ Stripling