000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030708
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 05N107W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N107W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 87W 
and 103W, and from 05N to 10N between 113W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula as well as west of Cabo Corrientes. 
Gentle to moderate winds are also over the Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is bringing
seas of 6-8 ft over the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula. Seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf of California. 
Elsewhere, seas of 4-5 ft prevail. Areas of smoke from 
agricultural fires may persist over offshore waters southeast of 
Cabo Corrientes to the Guatemala border.

For the forecast, fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will increase tonight to strong to near gale force 
before diminishing Thu. Winds will freshen west of Baja 
California this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are found over the Gulf of Papagayo.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft
range north of the equator, and 5-7 ft south of the equator. 
Otherwise, low visibility due to agricultural fires is likely 
from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area 
will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night beginning 
tonight and lasting through the weekend. Gentle to moderate 
breezes will prevail elsewhere through late week. Southerly swell
will increase in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands tonight through Thu night before subsiding Fri. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds north of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle to
moderate winds are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Light to 
gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Combined seas of 7 to 9
ft are moving through most of the region north of 20N, except 
over the area near 30N140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Seas of 
6-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 130W. Seas in the 4 to 
7 ft are noted elsewhere north of the Equator. South of the 
Equator to 3.4S, seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in S swell.

For the forecast, NW to N swell north of 18N will propagate into
the deep tropics by late today, reinforcing the seas west of 
115W. Winds and seas will diminish north of 20N Thu as high 
pressure builds farther north of the area. This pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas over 
the tropical Pacific west of 115W. A weak cold front will move 
into the waters north of 20N and west of 120W Fri into Sat.

$$
AL