000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022105
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N88W to 06N95W to 
06.5N101W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N101W to 05N118W to 
beyond 03N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
noted from 11.5N to 14N between 88.5W and 94W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 85W and
115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell prevails over the waters west of Baja California Norte,
with combined seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Moderate wind speeds
prevail across the Mexican offshore waters west of 103W. Light to
gentle winds are found east of 103W with seas of 3-5 ft. Areas 
of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over offshore waters
southeast of Cabo Corrientes to the Guatemala border.

For the forecast, NW swell over the waters north of Cabo San 
Lazaro will subside tonight. Fresh SW gap winds will develop over
the northern Gulf of California tonight, increasing Wed night to
strong to near gale force. Winds will diminish Thu. Looking
ahead, the gradient between high pressure west of the area and
lower pressure over Mexico may increase some this weekend,
producing fresh NW winds west of Baja California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 
89W with combined seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds remain 
light to gentle with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, except across 
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters where seas are 
5 to 7 ft due to long period SW swell approaching the area. 
Otherwise, low visibility due to agricultural fires is likely 
from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will
support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night beginning Wed
night and lasting through the weekend. Gentle to moderate 
breezes will persist elsewhere through late week. Southerly 
swell will increase in the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands tonight and persist through Thu night before
subsiding Fri.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure spreads across the area north of 20N and is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds north of 05N 
and west of 127W. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are moving through 
most of the region north of 20N, except for the area near
30N140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 
4 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere north of the 
Equator. South of the Equator to 3.4S, seas are 6 to 9 ft in S 
swell.

For the forecast, NW to N swell will persist north of 18N through
this evening. The northerly swell will propagate into the deep 
tropics by late Wed, reinforcing the seas west of 115W. Winds 
and seas will diminish north of 20N Thu, as the high pressure 
will become established farther north of the area, but this 
pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds 
and 6 to 9 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of 115W. A weak
cold front will move into the waters north of 20N and west of 
120W Fri into Sat.

$$
Hagen