000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021518
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N84W to 06N93W to
06N106W. The ITCZ continues from 06N106W to 04.5N133W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09.5N to
13.5N between 85W and 92W, from 04N to 10N between 91W and 103W,
and from 05N to 09N between 108W and 119W

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening surface trough situated over the northern Gulf of 
California is moving slowly eastward. NW swell prevails over the
waters west of Baja California Norte, with combined seas in the 7
to 9 ft range. Winds have diminished to moderate over the
northern Gulf of California near the trough. Moderate to fresh W
to NW winds may be funneling off the coast of Los Cabos. Gentle 
to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined 
seas in open waters. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may 
persist over offshore waters southeast of Cabo Corrientes to the
Guatemala border.

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to affect the waters 
north of Cabo San Lazaro through this afternoon before subsiding
tonight. The lingering trough will also support fresh SW gap 
winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight and strong
winds there Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream to 89W with combined seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, 
winds remain light to gentle with combined seas of 2 to 4 ft, 
except across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters 
where seas are 5 to 6 ft due to long period SW swell approaching 
the area. Otherwise, low visibility due to agricultural fires is 
likely from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will
support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong gap winds across 
the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night
through the week. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate 
combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure spreads across the area north of 20N and is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 05N and west 
of 125W. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft are moving through most of 
the region north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft 
combined seas are noted elsewhere north of the Equator. South of
the Equator to 3.4S, seas are 6 to 8 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and NW swell will 
persist north of 20N through tonight. The northerly swell will 
propagate into the deep tropics by late Wed, reinforcing the seas
west of 125W. Winds and seas will diminish north of 20N by Thu, 
as the high pressure will become established farther north of the
area, but this pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh
trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of
125W. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the waters
north of 20N and west of 120W Fri into Sat.

$$
Hagen