000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020339 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 05N77W to 08N95W. The ITCZ continues from 08N105W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 85W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front that had been approaching the Baja California Norte coast has weakened to the trough just before moving inland over the coast. NW swell is following the trough, with combined seas building to 6 to 8 ft off Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong SW gap winds are evident ahead of the trough over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough. Fresh to strong W to NW winds may be funneling off the coast of Los Cabos. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open waters. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over offshore waters over the southern Gulf of California and south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, NW swell following the trough will continue to affect the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Tue night before subsiding. The lingering trough will also support fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight, Tue night, and Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 90W with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds remain light to gentle with seas to 4 ft, except across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters where seas are 5 to 6 ft due to long period SW swell approaching the area. Otherwise, low visibility due to agricultural fires is likely from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night through the week. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure building north of 20N in the wake of a now dissipated cold front is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W. Combined seas of 8 to 10 ft are moving through most of the region north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and NW swell will persist north of 20N through mid week. The northerly swell will propagate into the deep tropics by late Wed, reinforcing the seas west of 125W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish north of 20N by Thu, as the high pressure will become established farther north of the area, but this pattern will continue to support fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of 125W through late week. $$ Christensen