000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N93W to 07N103W. The ITCZ continues from 07N103W to 06N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 80W and 90W, from 08N to 12N between 95W and 104W, and from 02N to 09N between 111W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is moving across Baja California Norte. The front along with NW swell is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and seas of 5 to 9 ft. The front is also generating fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 6 ft in the northern Gulf of California. A surface trough extending S of 29N to the entrance of the gulf supports moderate to fresh southerly winds along the southern half of the gulf. A generally weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds over the remainder Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over these areas in mixed swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires continue to be reported off the coast of Sinaloa and across both the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the cold front affecting the Baja California Norte Peninsula will dissipate tonight, however NW swell following the front will continue to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Tue afternoon before subsiding. A lingering trough will support fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. SW gap winds may pulse again over the northern Gulf of California Wed evening and Thu as another surface trough moves across the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 90W with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds remain light to gentle with seas to 4 ft, except across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters where seas have built to 6 ft due to long period SW swell approaching the area. Otherwise, low visibility due to agricultural fires is likely from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will support pulses of fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua tonight, then again Tue night through Thu. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are possible Fri across the Gulf of Papagayo, between high pressure building north of the area, and relatively lower pressure farther south into the tropical eastern Pacific. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front extends from 30N117W to 23N129W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong NE winds and NW swell reaching 8 to 9 ft follow the front. High pressure building the wake of the front is supporting fresh trades and combined seas to 8 ft farther south over the tropics, from 07N to 20N west of 125W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in mixed NW and SW swell persist elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will move across the waters north of 25N before dissipating later today/tonight. High pressure will build north of 20N in the wake of the front through mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and NW swell will follow the front north of 25N through mid week. The building high pressure will support fresh trades and seas to 8 ft over the tropical Pacific west of 125W through tonight. The northerly swell will propagate into the deep tropics into mid week, reinforcing the seas west of 125W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish north of 20N by Thu, as the high pressure will become established north of the area, but this pattern will continue to support fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of 125W through late week. $$ Ramos