000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N94W to 07N103W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N103W to 05N120W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 13N E of
93W, and from 02N to 08N between 110W and 142W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the Baja California Peninsula this
morning. The front along with NW swell is supporting moderate to
fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and seas of 5 to 9 ft. The
front and a pre-frontal trough is also generating fresh to
locally strong SW winds and seas to 6 ft in the northern Gulf of
California. The trough extends to the entrance of the gulf, thus
supporting moderate winds elsewhere in the gulf. A generally weak
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW
winds over the remainder Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexican
offshore waters. Northerly winds of similar speed are in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over these areas in mixed
swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires are being reported
off the coast of Sinaloa and across both the S and SW Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, the cold front affecting the Baja California
Norte Peninsula will dissipate late today/tonight, however NW 
swell following the front will continue to affect the waters N of 
Punta Eugenia through Tue afternoon before subsiding. A 
lingering trough will support fresh SW gap winds over the 
northern Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. SW gap 
winds may pulse again over the northern Gulf of California Wed 
evening and Thu as another weak trough moves across the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW
swell prevail in the forecast area. Also, low visibility due to
agricultural fires is likely from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will
support pulses of fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
and the coast of Nicaragua today, then again Tue night through
Thu. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas will 
persist elsewhere through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong gap winds and rough seas are possible Fri across the Gulf
of Papagayo, between high pressure building north of the area, 
and relatively lower pressure farther south into the tropical 
eastern Pacific.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front is moving southward across the waters north of
27N and west of 120W. Fresh to strong NE winds and NW swell 
reaching 8 to 9 ft follow the front. High pressure building the
wake of the front is supporting fresh trades and combined seas to
8 ft farther south over the tropics, from 07N to 20N west of
125W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in
mixed NW and SW swell persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the front will move across the waters north of
25N before dissipating later today. High pressure will build 
north of 20N in the wake of the front through mid week. Fresh to 
occasionally strong northerly winds and NW swell will follow the 
front north of 25N through mid week. The building high pressure 
will support fresh trades and seas to 8 ft over the tropical 
Pacific west of 125W through tonight. The northerly swell will
propagate into the deep tropics into mid week, reinforcing the 
seas west of 125W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish 
north of 20N by Thu, as the high pressure will become 
established north of the area, but this pattern will continue to
support fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical 
Pacific west of 125W through late week.

$$
Ramos