000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N95W to 08N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N100W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 97W and 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent reports from San Dionisio del Mar on the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec hint that fresh wind persist offshore. But winds are diminishing as high pressure north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico weakens. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient persist across the waters north of 20N ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere over most of the Mexican offshore waters except for off prominent points such as Punta Eugenia and Los Cabos, where winds to 20 kt are likely. Fresh SW gap winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California, ahead of the approaching front. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell in open waters off Mexico, except maybe to 7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires cover the coastal waters south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, fresh winds will continue to diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight a high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. A cold front approaching the Baja California Peninsula from the west will enhance the winds north of Punta Eugenia to moderate to locally fresh into Mon. Expect SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue morning ahead of the cold front. The front will dissipate Mon, however a lingering trough will resume fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California Tue night. SW gap winds may pulse again over the northern Gulf of California Wed evening and Thu as another weak cold front moves across the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW swell prevail in the forecast area. Also, low visibility due to agricultural fires is likely from the Guatemala to Nicaragua offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will support pulses of fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua into Mon, then again Thu and Fri. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front is moving southward across the waters north of 27N and west of 125W. Fresh to strong NE winds and NW swell reaching 8 to 9 ft follow the front. High pressure building the wake of the front is supporting fresh trades and combined seas to 8 ft farther south over the tropics, from 07N to 20N west of 125W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in mixed NW and SW swell persist elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will move across the waters north of 25N before dissipating late Mon. High pressure will build north of 20N in the wake of the front through mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and NW swell will follow the front north of 25N through mid week. The building high pressure will support fresh trades and seas to 8 ft over the tropical Pacific west of 125W into Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish north of 20N by Thu. The high pressure will become established north of the area, and continue to support fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of 125W through late week. $$ Christensen