000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N90W to 07N101W. The ITCZ continues from 08N102W to 06N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 11N E of 91W, from 06N to 11N between 94W and 115W, and from 02N to 08N W of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data show gentle NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters with locally moderate winds along the coast. Seas in this region remain in the 4-5 ft range in NW swell. In Tehuantepec, winds have diminished below gale-force as the front in the Gulf of Mexico has moved off the basin and the ridge behind it has weakened. However, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail in this region with seas to 9 ft reaching downstream to near 12.5N. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters and and in the Gulf of California with seas of 3-4 ft, except for 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds will further diminish to 20 kt in the region of Tehuantepec and seas will subside below 8 ft tonight. A cold front approaching the Baja California Peninsula from the west will enhance the winds N of Punta Eugenia to moderate to locally fresh tonight and Mon. Seas to 9 ft in NW swell will also affect this region through Tue evening. Expect SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue morning ahead of the cold front. The front will dissipate Mon, however a lingering trough will resume fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California Tue night. SW gap winds may pulse again over the northern Gulf of California Wed evening and Thu as another weak cold front moves across the region. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern will continue to support mainly gentle to locally moderate winds across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW swell dominate the forecast area. For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will support pulses of fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua Mon, and again starting mid week mainly at night. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front extends to 30N133W and then stalls towards 28N140W. Surface ridging is ahead of the front, covering the open waters N of 17N and W of 117W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft combined seas in NW swell N of 14N and W of 120W. In the tropical waters, between the ridge and the ITCZ, trade winds are moderate to fresh W of 120W with seas to 8 ft. Light breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will transition back to a cold front later today and move across the waters north of 25N before dissipating late Mon. High pressure will build north of 20N in the wake of the front through mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and NW swell will follow the front north of 25N through mid week. The building high pressure will support fresh trades and seas to 8 ft from 07N to 15N west of 130W into Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish north of 20N by Thu. The high pressure will become established north of the area, and support fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of 125W by late week. $$ Ramos