000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehunatepec: Surface ridging across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front making its way out of the basin is supporting minimal gale-force gap winds in the region of Tehuantepec. Seas have diminished to 10 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force early this afternoon as the front exits the SE Gulf of Mexico, however fresh to strong northerly winds will persist into the late afternoon hours along with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt and combined seas will subside below 8 ft tonight. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N91W to 08N103W. The ITCZ continues from 08N103W to 04N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N E of 90W, from 04N to 10N between 94W and 112W, and from 03N to 08N W of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for details. A cold front is approaching the area from the west, resulting in a relatively weak pressure gradient across the region. This is supporting mostly light to moderate breezes across Mexican offshore waters outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in open waters off Mexico outside Tehuantepec, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico is supporting strong to minimal gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec currently. These winds will gradually diminish early this afternoon, but associated rough seas may persist downstream through the late afternoon hours. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern will continue to support mainly gentle to locally moderate NW winds across most of the Mexican offshore waters. Expect SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue ahead of a weak cold front moving into the waters off Baja California Norte late today. The front will dissipate Mon but NW swell following the front will persist north of Punta Eugenia through Wed. Looking ahead, SW gap winds may pulse again over the northern Gulf of California Tue night and Wed night as a surface trough remains in the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW swell dominate the forecast area. For the forecast, high pressure building well north of the area will support pulses of fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua Mon, and again starting mid week mainly at night. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front extends to 30N133W and then stalls towards 28N140W. Surface ridging is ahead of the front, covering the open waters N of 17N and W of 117W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft combined seas in NW swell N of 14N and W of 120W. In the tropical waters, between the ridge and the ITCZ, trade winds are moderate to fresh W of 120W with seas to 8 ft. Light breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will transition back to a cold front later today and move across the waters north of 25N before dissipating late Mon. High pressure will build north of 20N in the wake of the front through mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and NW swell will follow the front north of 25N through mid week. The building high pressure will support fresh trades and seas to 8 ft from 07N to 15N west of 130W into Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish north of 20N by Thu. The high pressure will become established north of the area, and support fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the tropical Pacific west of 125W by late week. $$ Ramos