000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300254
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehunatepec: A brief gap wind event 
is expected in the Tehuantepec region tonight into Sun as a 
ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf 
of Mexico. Winds are forecast to suddenly increase to 30 to 35 kt
tonight, with seas building to 12 ft by early Sun morning. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will persist on Sun afternoon, with 
seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. Winds will further diminish to 20 
kt and combined seas will subside below 8 ft through Sun night.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late 
March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur 
as early as September, and as late as May.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N105W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 05N to 11N between 93W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for details. 

A broad surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure 
located near 36N152W southeastward towards Clarion Island. This 
pattern is supporting light to gentle NW to N winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California with locally moderate winds
along the coast. Wave heights remain in the 4 to 5 ft range in 
NW swell across these waters. Light and variable winds are in the
Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Light 
to gentle W to NW winds dominate the remainder of the SW Mexican 
offshore waters, with seas generally in the 4 to 5 ft range 
primarily in NW swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires are
still noted on visible satellite imagery off Southern Mexico.

For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the 
relatively weak pressure pattern will continue to support mainly 
gentle to locally moderate NW winds across most of the Mexican 
offshore waters through early Sun. SW gap winds will briefly 
pulse over the northern Gulf of California Sun night ahead of a 
weak cold front moving into the waters off Baja California Norte 
late Sun. NW swell following the front will persist north of 
Punta Eugenia through Wed. Looking ahead, SW gap winds may pulse
again over the northern Gulf of California Sun night and prevail
through Wed night as a surface trough remains in the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW
swell dominate the forecast area. Areas of smoke from 
agricultural fires are ongoing over the offshore waters from 
Nicaragua to Guatemala.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support light 
to gentle winds across the region through Sun, increasing to 
moderate to fresh over the Gulf of Papagayo Mon. Expect slight to
moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. Areas of 
smoke from agricultural fires may persist over the offshore 
waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Looking, ahead, 
fresh to possibly strong gap winds may pulse across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night by mid-week. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area has dissipated ahead of a weak 
cold front approaching 30N140W from the northwest. The pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft combined seas
in mixed NW and SW swell west of 120W. Light breezes and 3 to 5
ft combined seas east of 120W. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the waters
north of 25N before dissipating late Mon. High pressure will 
build north of 20N in the wake of the front north of 20N through 
mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and NW
swell will follow the front north of 25N through mid week. The 
building high pressure will support fresh trades and seas to 8 ft
from 07N to 15N west of 130W Mon and Tue. 

$$
Christensen