000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehunatepec: A brief gap wind event 
is expected in the Tehuantepec region tonight into Sun as a 
ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf 
of Mexico. Winds are forecast to suddenly increase to 30 to 35 kt
tonight, with seas building to 12 ft by early Sun morning. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will persist on Sun afternoon, with 
seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. Winds will further diminish to 20 
kt and combined seas will subside below 8 ft through Sun night.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late 
March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur 
as early as September, and as late as May.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 06N111W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N111W to 05N130W to beyond 02N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 
02S to 13N east of 93W, and from 01N to 10N between 96W and 
118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for details. 

A weak ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure located near 
30N135W southeastward towards Clarion Island. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft 
in NW swell across these waters. Light and variable winds are in
the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. 
Light to gentle W to NW winds dominate the remainder of the SW  
Mexican offshore waters, with seas generally in the 4 to 5 ft 
range primarily in NW swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural 
fires are still noted on visible satellite imagery off SW Mexico.

For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the 
relatively weak pressure pattern will continue to support gentle 
to moderate NW winds across most of the Mexican offshore waters 
through early Sun. SW gap winds will briefly pulse over the 
northern Gulf of California Sun night ahead of a weak cold front 
moving into the waters off Baja California Norte late Sun. NW 
swell following the front will persist north of Punta Eugenia 
through mid week. Looking ahead, SW gap winds may pulse again 
over the northern Gulf of California Wed night ahead of another 
weak cold front approaching the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW
swell dominate the forecast area, except for moderate SE winds SW
of the Galapagos Islands where seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support light 
to gentle winds across the region through early next week. Expect
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over the
offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Looking, 
ahead, fresh to possibly strong gap winds may pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night by 
mid-week.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure situated
near 30N135W, dominates waters north of 15N and west of 110W. 
Moderate trades are noted along the southern periphery of the 
ridge. Mainly gentle winds are evident over the remainder of the 
area. Combined seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW 
swell. Stronger winds associated with the convection along the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ is likey. See section above.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the waters
north of 15N through today, maintaining moderate trade winds 
farther south. High pressure will strenghten north of the area on
Sun bringing moderate to fresh trades along the ITCZ and west of
130W, and producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds to the
north of 25N by late Sun, and north of 20N by late Mon. In 
addition, a weak cold front will move across the waters north of 
25N and east of 125W Sun through Mon while dissipating. High 
pressure will build north of 20N in the wake of the front north 
of 20N through mid week.

$$
Ramos