000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280229
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N110W to 02N125W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection can be found from 03N to 06N between 88W and
93W, from 02N to 04N between 100W and 103W, and from 05N to 08N 
between 115W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends from 1018 mb high pressure near 28N133W
southeastward toward Socorro Island. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican offshore waters.
Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft in open waters, with moderate SW
swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist off 
southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will 
support gentle to moderate NW winds across the Mexican offshore 
waters through early Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building 
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico
behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will 
support fresh to strong gap winds and building seas across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through Sun night. A NW swell event
will propagate across the waters north of Punta Eugenia late Sun
night into Mon with building seas of 8 to 10 ft late on Mon. 
Expect increasing S to SW winds and building seas in the northern
Gulf of California Mon and Mon night ahead of a frontal trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW
swell dominate the region. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle winds across the region through the upcoming weekend, except
for gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama
tonight. Expect slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S 
to SW swell. Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist
over the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge extends across the waters north of 25N,
anchored by 1018 mb high pressure near 28N133W. A stationary 
front remains near 30N140W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
seas of 5 to 6 ft are ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate 
trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. 
Mainly gentle breezes are evident over the remainder of the area.
Combined seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. 

For the forecast, the stationary front near 30N140W will 
dissipate through Sat. The ridge will continue to dominate the 
northern forecast waters north of 20N through Sat, maintaining
moderate trade winds farther south. The ridge will shift 
northward as a reinforcing cold front moves into the region. The 
front will stall and dissipate through Mon north of 28N and west 
of 125W. Strong high pressure will build into the region from the
northwest over the weekend and produce fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and increasing N swell to the north of 25N by late Sun, and
north of 20N by late Mon.

$$
Christensen