000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to  
05N90W to 04N115W. The ITCZ continues from 04N115W to beyond 
02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N E
of 80W to the coast of Colombia, from 03N to 06N between 85W and
93W, from 04N to 07N between 115W and 121W, and near 05N132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1024 mb located well N of the forecast area
dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing mostly
moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light and variable winds
are noted over the Gulf of California with seas generally in the
1 to 2 ft range, except 3 to 4 ft near to the entrance of the 
GUlf. Elsewhere gentle winds and slight seas are observed. Areas
of smoke from agricultural fires may persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will support
gentle to moderate NW winds across the Mexican offshore waters
through early Sun. Smoke from agricultural fires will impact the
coastal waters of southern Mexico through late today. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building behind a cold front moving through 
the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong gap winds and 
building seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through 
Sun night. A NW swell event will propagate across the waters N of
Punta Eugenia late Sun night into Mon with building seas of 8 to
10 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle mainly onshore breezes across the region through late 
week, except for gentle to moderate northerly winds across the 
Gulf of Panama. Expect slight to moderate combined seas primarily
in S to SW swell. Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires 
may persist over the offshore waters from Panama to Guatemala.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is displaced well north of the area ahead of low 
pressure and an associated cold front stalling near 30N140W. 
Fresh southerly winds and seas to 7 ft is noted ahead of the
front over the far NW corner of the forecast region. The pressure
pattern elsewhere across the region is supporting gentle to 
moderate trade winds north of 05N and west of 120W. Mainly gentle
breezes are evident over the remainder of the area. Combined 
seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate trade winds will persist from 05N to 
20N and west of 125W through the remainder of the week. The cold 
front located near 30N140W this morning will stall and dissipate
through Fri. Strong high pressure will build into the region 
from the northwest over the weekend and produce fresh to strong N
to NE winds and increasing N swell to the north of 25N by late 
Sun, and north of 20N by late Mon.

$$
GR