000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270832
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N789W to 03N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N105W to 03N120W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 82W and 
89W, from 07N to 09N between 100W and 102W, and from 05N to 07N
between 115W and 120W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent satellite derived wind data and ship observations indicate
mostly moderate NW winds across most of the offshore waters off 
Baja California, and fresh NW winds near the prominent points of
Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia. This relatively light wind 
flow is the result of a weak pressure gradient across the 
region. Combined seas have subsided to 5 to 7 ft off Baja 
California Norte, and 4 to 6 ft off of Baja Sur. Elsewhere gentle
winds and slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California and 
off southern Mexico. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires 
persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will support
gentle to moderate NW winds across the Mexican offshore waters
through early Sun. Smoke from agricultural fires will impact the
coastal waters of southern Mexico through late today. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building behind a cold front moving through 
the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong gap winds and 
building seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun through Mon 
morning. NW swell to 9 ft will arrive off Baja California Norte 
Mon, and reach as far south as off Cabo San Lazaro Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure
gradient will support light to gentle mainly onshore breezes 
across the region through late week, except for gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Expect 
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over the
offshore waters from Panama to Guatemala.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is displaced well north of the area ahead of low 
pressure and an associated cold front stalling near 30N140W. 
Recent satellite derived data confirmed fresh southerly winds and
seas to 7 ft north of 25N and west of 135W. The pressure pattern
elsewhere across the region is supporting gentle to moderate 
trade winds north of 05N and west of 120W. Mainly gentle breezes 
are evident over the remainder of the area. Combined seas are 6 
to 7 ft in northerly swell north of 20N and east of 128W, and 5 
to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds will persist from 05N to 
20N and west of 125W through the remainder of the week. The cold 
front reaching 30N140W this morning will stall and dissipate 
through Fri. Strong high pressure will build into the region 
from the northwest over the weekend and produce fresh to strong 
N to NE winds and increasing N swell to the north of 25N by late 
Sun, and north of 20N by late Mon.

$$
Christensen