498 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260239
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N110W to beyond 04N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 07N between 85W and 
92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N 
between 101W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent satellite derived data indicated mostly light to gentle 
NW winds across most of the offshore waters off Baja California, 
and moderate NW winds well offshore of Baja Norte. This is
related to a relatively weak pressure gradient across the region. 
Combined seas remain 5 to 8 ft, with highest winds near Guadalupe
Island. Elsewhere gentle winds and slight seas are noted over 
the Gulf of California and off southern Mexico. Areas of smoke 
from agricultural fires persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will 
support gentle to moderate winds across the Mexican offshore 
waters into early next week. Northerly swell off Baja California 
Norte will subside overnight into early Wed. Slight to moderate 
swell will persist elsewhere into early next week. Expect areas 
of smoke off southern Mexico tonight into Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure
gradient will support light to gentle mainly onshore breezes 
across the region through late week, except for gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Expect 
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over the
offshore waters W of 85W.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is displaced well north of the area ahead of a 
cold front extending into the central Hawaiian Islands. This 
pattern is supporting moderate trade winds north of 05N and west 
of 120W. Mainly gentle breezes are evident elsewhere. Combined 
seas are 7 to 9 ft in northerly swell north of 26N and east of 
128W, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the large NW swell will persist into tonight 
for waters north of 27N and east of 125W, then diminish to less 
than 8 ft Wed. Moderate trade winds will persist from 05N to 20N 
and west of 125W through the remainder of the week. The cold 
front will reach 30N140W on Wed, briefly producing S winds near 
20 kt and seas around 7 ft, before the front stalls along 
137W-138W and gradually dissipates through Fri. Strong high
pressure will build into the region from the NW over the weekend
and produce fresh to strong N to NE winds and increasing N swell 
to the north of 24N by late Sun.

$$
Christensen