000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252055
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06.5N80W to 07.5N88W 
to 06N109W. The ITCZ continues from 06N109W to 06N123W to beyond
05.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 
01.5N to 07N between 81W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 10.5N between 103W and 
131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Afternoon satellite derived data indicated mostly light to gentle  
NW winds across most of the offshore waters off Baja California,
and moderate NW winds well offshore of Baja Norte.  Combined 
seas remain 5 to 8 ft, except 8 to 9 ft across the far NW waters 
to the NW of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
and seas to 4 ft are across the northern Gulf of California.
Elsewhere gentle winds and slight seas are noted over the Gulf 
of California and off southern Mexico. Areas of smoke from 
agricultural fires persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds well offshore
Baja California will gradually diminish through Thu, then remain
gentle to moderate into the weekend as low pressure over the 
Colorado River Valley weakens and moves east. Fresh SW gap winds 
over the northern Gulf of California will pulse this afternoon 
while moderate W gaps winds will persist across portions of 
central and southern Gulf through Wed morning. NW swell impacting
the waters of Baja California Norte will subside through 
tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate 
combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week. Expect 
areas of smoke off southern Mexico tonight. Looking ahead, strong
high pressure will begin to build across the Baja waters late Sun
to produce a significant increase in winds and seas. Fresh to 
strong northerly gap winds are also possible over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure
gradient will support light to gentle mainly onshore breezes 
across the region through late week, except for gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Expect 
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over the
offshore waters W of 85W.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging to the north of the area continues to shift northward and 
weaken this afternoon, ahead of a cold front extending into the 
central Hawaiian Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate 
trade winds north of 05N and west of 120W. Mainly gentle breezes 
are evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in northerly 
swell north of 26N and east of 128W, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the large NW swell will persist into tonight 
for waters north of 26N and east of 125W, then diminish to less 
than 8 ft Wed. Moderate trade winds will persist from 05N to 20N 
and west of 125W through the remainder of the week. The cold 
front will reach 30N140W on Wed, briefly producing S winds near 
20 kt and seas around 7 ft, before the front stalls along 
137W-138W and gradually dissipates through Fri. Strong high
pressure will build into the region from the NW over the weekend
and produce fresh to strong N to NE winds and increasing N swell 
to the north of 24N by late Sun.

$$
Stripling