000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250252
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N100W to 08N110W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 90W and 
95W, and from 04N to 07N between 110W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Mostly moderate NW winds persist off Baja California this
evening, funnelling to 20 kt along the coast north of Cabo San
Lazaro, and near Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas are 5 to 9 ft, 
with highest wave heights near Guadalupe Island. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and slight seas are noted over the
Gulf of California and off southern Mexico. Areas of smoke from
agricultural fires persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore 
Baja California Norte will gradually diminish through Fri as low 
pressure over the Colorado River Valley weakens and moves east. 
Fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California will 
pulse Tue afternoon while moderate W gaps winds will persist 
across portions of central and southern Gulf through Wed morning.
Large NW swell impact the outer waters of Baja California Norte 
will subside Tue through Tue night. Gentle to moderate breezes 
and slight to moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere 
through late week. Expect areas of smoke off southern Mexico 
tonight into Tue. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure
gradient will support light to gentle breezes across the region 
through late week. Expect slight to moderate combined seas 
primarily in S to SW swell. Also, areas of smoke from
agricultural fires may persist over the offshore waters. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1025 mb high pressure 
centered near 30N132W and extends southeastward to southern 
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate trade winds north of 
03N and west of 120W. Also, fresh N winds are ongoing north of 
29N and east of 125W. Mainly gentle breezes are evident 
elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in the area of fresh N 
winds and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, large NW swell will persist into Tue night for
waters north of 25N and east of 125W, then diminish to less than
8 ft Wed. High pressure will continue to shift west and weaken 
further today and tonight, leading to a continued decrease in 
trades. Moderate trade winds are then expected to persist from 
05N to 20N and west of 125W through the remainder of the week. A
cold front will reach 30N140W on Wed, briefly producing S winds 
near 20 kt and seas around 7 ft, before the front stalls along 
137W-138W and gradually dissipates through Fri.

$$
Christensen