000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242041
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N73.5W to 07N76W to 10.5N83W to 
07.5N96W to 08N102W. The ITCZ continues from 08N102W to 05N128W
to beyond 02.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 88W and 99W, and from 11.5N to 
13.5N between 91W and 94.5W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 105W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh NW winds have shifted farther offshore of Baja California 
Norte this afternoon, and are generally N of 29N and W of 120W,
based on recent scatterometer wind data. Seas across this are 8 
to 9 ft in NW swell. Moderate NW to N winds prevail elsewhere 
across the Baja offshore waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 
Moderate southerly winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are ongoing in the 
far northern Gulf of California. Light breezes prevail elsewhere
with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open waters with southerly 
swell. The mild marine conditions are due to a relatively weak 
pressure gradient in place between 1007 mb low pressure over the
Colorado River Valley and 1026 mb high pressure centered over 
the eastern Pacific between California and Hawaii.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds well offshore Baja California 
Norte will diminish tonight as low pressure over the Colorado 
River Valley weakens and move E. Similarly, fresh SW gap winds 
over the northern Gulf of California will lessen by late Tue. 
Large NW swill will impact waters beyond 90 nm offshore Baja 
California Norte into tonight, before subsiding through Tue 
night. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate combined
seas will persist elsewhere through late week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure
gradient will support light to gentle breezes across the region 
through late week. Expect slight to moderate combined seas 
primarily in S to SW swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure 
centered near 39N134W and extends southeastward to southern 
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate trade winds north of 
03N and west of 120W. Also, fresh N winds are ongoing N of 29N 
and E of 125W. Mainly gentle breezes are evident elsewhere. 
Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in the area of fresh N winds and 4 
to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, large NW swell will persist into Tue night for
waters north of 25N and east of 127W, then diminish to less than
8 ft Wed. High pressure will continue to shift west and weaken 
further today and tonight, leading to a continued decrease in 
trades. MOderate trade winds are then expected to persist from
04N to 14N and W of 125W through the remainder of the week.
A cold front will reach the far NW waters near 30N140W on Wed,
briefly producing S winds near 20 kt and seas around 7 ft, 
before the front stalls along 137W-138W and gradually dissipates
through Fri.

$$
Stripling