000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232119
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N102W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N102W to 04N135W. No significant convection is
noted with these boundaries at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds dominate the waters off Baja California 
with 7 to 10 ft combined seas in NW swell. Light breezes prevail 
elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open waters with 
southerly swell. The mild marine conditions are due to a 
relatively weak pressure gradient in place between 1006 mb low 
pressure over the Colorado River Valley and 1025 mb high pressure
centered over the eastern Pacific between California and Hawaii.
Smoke from agricultural fires is restricting visibility within 
about 120 nm of shore over offshore waters S of Cabo Corrientes. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue 
beyond 90 nm offshore Baja California Norte through tonight as 
low pressure prevail over the Colorado River Valley. This pattern
will also allow fresh gap winds to pulse through tonight over 
parts of the northern Gulf of California. Large NW swill will 
also impact waters beyond 90 nm offshore Baja California Norte 
through Mon, before subsiding Tue night. Gentle to moderate 
breezes and slight to moderate combined seas will persist 
elsewhere through late week. Some smoke may restrict visibility 
nearshore southern Mexico through tonight. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. Scattered thunderstorms persist 
S of Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle breezes across the region through late week. Expect 
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1025 mb high pressure 
centered near 36N139W and extends southeastward to southern 
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
north of 06N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell 
from 10N to 14N and west of 137W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, large NW swell will persist through Tue night 
for waters north of 20N and east of 132W. High pressure will 
continue to shift west and weaken further into early week, 
leading to a continued decrease in trades west of 120W. Seas 
west of 120W will also fall below 8 ft tonight.

$$
ERA