000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222035
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N85W to 03N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 03S125W to beyond 02S140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 
80W and 85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ship observations and satellite derived data indicate 
gentle to moderate winds off Baja California with 5 to 7 ft
combined seas in NW swell, and light breezes elsewhere with 3 to
5 ft combined seas in open waters with southerly swell. The mild
marine conditions are due to a relatively weak pressure gradient 
in place between 1009 mb low pressure over the Colorado River 
valley, and 1029 mb high pressure centered over the eastern 
Pacific between California and Hawaii. Light smoke from 
agricultural fires covers the offshore waters of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will move over the
southwest U.S. tonight and Sun, allowing the low pressure over 
the Colorado Valley to deepen slight. This pattern will support 
increased NW winds off Baja California Norte and over parts of 
the northern Gulf of California. Strong NW winds off the 
California coast will also promote a new group of NW swell in 
excess of 8 ft into the waters beyond 90 nm off the Baja 
California coast north of Punta Eugenia today, reaching as far 
south as Cabo San Lazaro through Mon, before subsiding Tue 
through Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate 
combined seas will persist elsewhere into late next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
persist off western Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon
trough. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle breezes across the region into late next week. Expect
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1029 mb high pressure 
centered near 34N136W and extends southeastward to southern 
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
north of 10N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell 
from 05N to 20N and west of 125W, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, large NW swell will arrive tonight and persist
through Tue night for waters north of 25N and east of 125W. High
pressure will continue to shift west and weaken further Sun into
early next week, leading to a continued decrease in trades west 
of 120W. Seas west of 125W will will also fall below 8 ft Sun.

$$
Christensen