000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211509
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 10N85W to 04N105W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 80W and 85W .

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from 1033 mb high pressure
near 35N129W to offshore southern Mexico. Mainly moderate NW 
winds are occurring off the coast of Baja California and in the 
Gulf of California. Seas are 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California 
Norte, 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Sur, and 3 to 5 ft in 
the Gulf of California. Farther south, mainly gentle breezes and
moderate combined seas are noted elsewhere in the open waters 
off Mexico. 

For the forecast, the interaction between high pressure off 
California and lower pressure over the southwest U.S. and 
northwest Mexico will support moderate to local fresh NW winds 
off Baja California and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas 
in this area will be 7 to 9 ft with NW swell. Winds and seas will
diminish then through Sat night as the high pressure weakens and
shifts westward. Looking ahead, a new round of large NW swell is
expected to move into the waters off Baja California north of 
Punta Eugenia Sun and persist through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate gap
winds in the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Light to gentle 
breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle breezes across the region into the middle of next week. 
Expect slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW 
swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1033 mb high pressure 
centered near 35N129W and extends southeastward to southern
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of 05N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW to N swell 
north of 05N and west of 115W, 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific east of
125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high pressure 
north of the area weakens and shifts westward. Large NW swell
impacting waters north of 25N and east of 125W will diminish 
through Fri night then increase again Sat into Sun night. High 
pressure will continue to shift west and weaken further Sun into
early next week, leading to a continued most decrease in trades 
west of 125W. Seas will also fall below 8 ft late Sun.

$$
Christensen