000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210106
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N110W to 07N130W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 07N between 85W and 98W and from 03N to 10N
between 114W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1032 mb high pressure is centered near 36N128W, with a surface 
ridge extending southeastward to offshore of southern Mexico.
Moderate to locally fresh NW and combined seas of 8 to 10 ft in
NW swell are ongoing off the coast of Baja California N of Cabo
San Lazaro. Light to gentle breezes and moderate combined seas 
are noted elsewhere in the open waters off Mexico. Mainly gentle
NW breezes and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the interaction between high pressure off 
California and lower pressure over the southwest U.S. and 
northwest Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds tonight 
off much of Baja California Norte. Combined seas in this area 
will be 7 to 9 ft with NW swell. Winds and seas will diminish 
into Sun as the high pressure weakens and shifts westward. 
Looking ahead, a new round of large NW swell is expected to move 
into the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia Sun 
and persist through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate gap
winds in the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Light to gentle 
breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle breezes across the region into the middle of next week. 
Expect slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW 
swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure 
centered near 36N128W and extends southeastward to southern
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of 05N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell
north of 05N and east of 115W, 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high 
pressure north of the area shifts northward. Large NW swell 
impacting the waters E of 130W will diminish into Sat before 
briefly increasing again Sat night through Sun. High pressure 
will then shift westward late Sat through Mon and lead to a 
modest decrease in trade winds west of 125W, with seas gradually 
subsiding to 7-8 ft late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish 
further across the basin through Mon.

$$
KONARIK